The 2025 San Diego State football season is almost a week away from kicking off. No matter how the season ends, you can always count on the sports books in Las Vegas to keep folks interested in college football. Whether it’s the games, the season, playoffs, or prop bets—the stakes are always exciting.
The Aztecs are coming off a third straight season in which the team’s record has declined. Don’t count on the general public to give you any favors after a 3-9 performance. But the sports better looking for the diamonds in the rough may see what others don’t.
SDSU enters the season with a packed roster full of experience, but also plenty of newcomers. The defense returns all starters and are led by Mountain West Conference Preseason Defensive Player of the Year Trey White, MW Preseason 1st Team Linebacker Tano Letuli, and a host of secondary defenders like Eric Butler, Chris Johnson, and Deshaun McCuin.
The offense is retooled with Michigan QB transfer Jayden Denegal and the returning standouts of WR Josh Napier, RB Lucky Sutton and team captain on the offensive line, Center, Ross Ulugalu-Maseuli. Added transfers have bolstered the depth on the offensive line and given some low risk–high reward potential along the skill position groups. The welcomed additions make this iteration of AztecFast 2.0 an intriguing offense to keep an eye one.
Coach Sean Lewis in his 2nd year of leading the program is young and full of new ideas. But is the college football world sleeping on the Aztecs or do they have them all figured out?
No matter if you’re a gambler or a football purist, the betting odds grab your attention. It serves as a barometer of how the masses perceive your team, or how well they’re supposed to perform each week. So we gathered some information on just exactly how does the gambling public view our Aztecs and the Mountain West.
SDSU Winning the National Championship (CFP Title)
Odds: +100000 (BetMGM)
You read that right. The Aztecs are 100,000 x 1 odds of winning the Natty.
Okay.
Having never been to the College Football Playoffs or Access Bowl or whatever it was called back in the BCS days of letting computers determine the National Championship game, this bet has never been a real option for SDSU.
No reason to start now.
College Football Playoff Appearance
Odds: +8000 (BetMGM)
Boise State, UCF, and a few others have shown in their past that with phenomenal seasons a G5 school can compete for the same Championship the power conferences do. Last season with the expanded playoffs kicking in for the first time, it was Boise State who earned their way into the tournament.
Good for them. (That was sarcasm).
Of course they played respectably, but still ended up getting put in their place against a Penn State team that was just flat out better.
The closest SDSU ever reasonably got to the College Football Playoff, had it been allowed all these years, probably would’ve been the 2016 season when Pumphrey broke the NCAA’s all-time rushing record. That team had it all, two 1,000 yard rushers, a sick blitzing defense, a kicker who was nails, and a coach who knew how to pull the right strings. Only thing they needed was a good night against Southern Alabama.
Oh well. SDSU’s odds are much better to make the playoffs, than simply winning it all. But at 8000×1, still not very good.
SDSU Winning the Mountain West Conference Championship
Odds: +3500 (BetMGM)
Do these betting odds keep hurting more and more as we go, or is it just me?
Up next is the Conference of Champions, the Mountain West. (Drum roll … also sarcasm). This should be the section where SDSU is considered contenders each and every year. With a recent history of winning, fertile recruiting grounds in their backyard, and multiple new revenue streams from a new stadium, there is no excuse to why this program shouldn’t be a consistently sure bet.
Not in 2025. The Aztecs’ odds stand squarely middle of the pack behind in state rival Fresno State, a program that hasn’t won a conference title in 23 years—Colorado State, an academy that puts out an NFL player with the frequency of a new Top Gun movie—Air Force, and a program located on an island in the pacific that’s been without a real college football stadium for almost five years—Hawai’i.
Boise State −160 (BetMGM)
UNLV +700 (BetMGM)
San Jose State +850 (BetMGM)
Fresno State +1100 (BetMGM)
Colorado State +1200 (BetMGM)
Air Force +1400 (BetMGM)
Hawaii +2000 (BetMGM)
San Diego State +3500 (BetMGM)
Wyoming +3500 (BetMGM)
Nevada +5000 (BetMGM)
Utah State +5000 (BetMGM)
New Mexico +20000 (BetMGM)
Yet there we are. The Aztecs are tied with the desolate Pokes of Wyoming, and only ahead of the likes of Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico. (Not sarcasm).
The Mountain West will be a very competitive league in this final season, before the tectonic plates break apart all of these regional juggernauts, very competitive. But aside from Boise State and maybe UNLV, it’s unclear wether the rest of the conference truly has enough chutzpah to break through alongside them on the National stage.
Season Over/Under Win Total
Line: 4.5 wins
Over: –165
Under: +140
Now here is where the rubber meets the road. No illusions of championships, just hardcore wins & losses here. Look in the mirror ye Mighty Aztec Warrior, take a good look. This is your reality. 4.5 wins is your Mason-Dixon. Are you going to rise-up to the next level and be a little Lebowski achiever—or just be another Donny?
For the Aztecs to have such low expectations is a fan base’s nightmare—but maybe a betters dream. Putting your money down on the Aztecs to win the conference could pay dividends. But over or under 4.5 wins, got to admit, it’s a dilly of a pickle. SoM will release our season picks early next week.
But what if Jayden Denegal truly shows he is another Michigan cast-off, turned Aztec Legend. Maybe Lucky Sutton proves to be cut from the same cloth as Rashaad Penny & Donnel Pumphrey. If the senior heavy defense lives up to their unfinished business mantra, maybe the Aztecs can pull off one of the biggest unexpected seasons in recent memory.
Let us know in the comments where you think the Aztecs and the rest of the Mountain West stack up. Lastly, always remember to gamble responsibly—don’t bet your shorts on it.
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One Response
I am hopeful based on all above. One more year in system and maturity of the players.