With San Diego State’s victory on Saturday they moved into sole possession of 1st place in the Mountain West Conference. With two final weeks to be played from all schools, five other teams remain in serious contention. According to the MW’s official standings, these are the top teams:
San Diego State Aztecs: 5-1 in conference play (8-2 overall)
UNLV Rebels: 4-2 (8-2 overall)
Fresno State Bulldogs 4-2 (7-3 overall)
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors 4-2 (7-3 overall)
New Mexico Lobos 4-2 (7-3 overall)
Boise State Broncos 4-2 (6-4 overall)
Utah State Aggies 3-3 (5-5 overall)
The Aztecs have pulled off one of the best turn arounds in program history—going 3-9 last season to now doubling that win output +2 more. It is the final season of the Mountain West before the great shake up of teams leaving for the new Pac-12.
What’s interesting is to see is of this list of 7 teams still in the running, four of them are new Pac-12 members in 2025 and three teams are returning Mountain West members: UNLV, Hawai’i, and New Mexico.
As we head into these final two weeks of the season here are the mechanics for this all important championship race:
• The two teams with the highest conference-winning percentage will qualify for the MWC Championship Game.
• If two teams tie, head-to-head result serves as the first tiebreaker.
• If three or more teams tie for a berth, additional tiebreakers (head-to-head among the tied teams, record vs common opponents, etc.) apply.
• The host of the championship game is the team of the two qualifiers with the higher conference winning percentage.
Here’s a closer look at each contender’s path:
San Diego State (5-1)
With the best record in the conference, the Aztecs controls their own destiny. A win in its two remaining league games (San Jose State and New Mexico) likely ensures a berth and the right to host the championship game. They already defeated contenders Boise State and Fresno State head-to-head.
A loss would allow the chasing pack a real chance to tie or surpass them, depending on other outcomes. Win out and you’re in — and very likely host the title game. It would be the first time since 2021 when SDSU played their 2nd of two seasons in Carson, California and their first in San Diego since 2015 when they defeated Air Force.
UNLV (4-2)
UNLV is tied for second and in the thick of the race. The Rebels have played in the championship game each of the last two seasons only to fall both times to Boise State. In order to make it 3 appearances in a row they must win both remaining league games and hope leaders slip.
Because they lost to other top teams—Boise and New Mexico earlier, they may be at a head-to-head disadvantage. However there may not be a luckier, err more fortunate team all season long than the Rebels. They’ve skated by on thin ice since early in the season and they just skate all the way back again. Realistic contender—yes, but definitely needing some help.
Hawai‘i (4-2)
Hawai’i holds the same record as UNLV, but must also win out—which includes their game against the Rebels this Saturday in Las Vegas. If they can’t get past the Rebels they will absolutely need losses from San Diego State and other contenders like New Mexico. Losses to Fresno State and San Jose State certainly hurt the Warriors in the worst way. But those games were close and Coach Chang has his offense firing on all cylinders this season.
If they can muster up the defense in these final two weeks they could make it happen or at least hurt tiebreakers for others. Hawai’i is still alive, but with a much less margin for error.
New Mexico (4-2)
New Mexico picked up a key win Nov 15 over Colorado State (20-17) to move to 4-2 behind San Diego State. They also have the tie-breaker edge over UNLV — so their path looks slightly better among the 4-2 group.
Their final two games are tricky however—a road game against the inconsistent but always tough Air Force and senior night when they host San Diego State who may have the Championship spot sewn up. A very strong shot if they finish well.
Fresno State (4-2)
Also at 4-2 and possession of head-to-head wins over some contenders is Fresno State. They are truly a darkhorse but also are playing some really strong ball since losing last to San Diego State.
Overall the Bulldogs have wins over Hawai’i and Boise State and have maybe the softest road to end the season when they host Utah State and then travel to San Jose State in the season’s finale.
They must win both of those remaining games and count on loss(es) by San Diego State or slip by others.
Boise State (4-2)
Though tied at 4-2, Boise State’s earlier losses to Fresno State and San Diego State puts them at a tough disadvantage. The Broncos must win their final games against Colorado State at home and then on the road at Utah State. On top of that they will have to rely on San Diego State losing one or more. Technically they’re still in it, but trailing in wiggle room.
Utah State (3-3)
With three conference losses, Utah State’s margin isn’t a very realistic one. They need to win both remaining games vs at Fresno State and then hoe against Boise State—Good luck Aggies. They’ll need to hope multiple teams like New Mexico and Hawai’i ahead lose, and then we all navigate the complex tiebreakers. Long shot, but technically not completely dead.
Overall among all the 4-2 teams, New Mexico probably has the best leverage thanks to tiebreakers. followed by UNLV, Hawai‘i and Fresno State. But it’s Fresno State that has the easiest path towards winning the final two games. Will that mean they get the help they need to jump everyone else? Not so fast.
Either way here are the Aztecs scenarios:
If SDSU wins both remaining games:
They will finish at 7–1. This means SDSU clinches a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game and hosts the championship game. No tiebreakers matter. No other team can catch 7–1.
If SDSU split both remaining games:
They will finish 6-2 this is where things get interesting. SDSU still controls a strong position, but some scenarios become risky. If SDSU beats San Jose but loses to New Mexico, New Mexico (currently 4–2) could finish 6–2 with a win over SDSU. The Lobos would own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
SDSU still makes the title game IF New Mexico loses its other remaining conference game or not more than one other 4–2 team also finishes 6–2 with a tiebreaker edge.
SDSU barely misses the title game IF New Mexico wins out (finishes 6–2) AND one of the others (UNLV, Hawai‘i, Fresno State, Boise State) also finishes 6–2 AND that team has a stronger tiebreaker profile than SDSU.
If SDSU loses to San José State, but beats New Mexico SDSU owns the tiebreaker over New Mexico. The loss to SJSU is not as damaging because SJSU is not in the title race.
SDSU makes the title game IF: They finish tied at 6–2 with New Mexico (they hold tiebreaker). They finish tied with only one other 4–2 team that cannot surpass them in head-to-head or common-opponent metrics. A loss to SJSU is survivable; a win over New Mexico protects SDSU’s tiebreaker.
The most dangerous path is obviously losing both. But let’s not think about that.
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