3 Things to Watch When San Diego State Goes Up Against GCU on the Road

San Diego State’s conference schedule doesn’t usually come with much mystery in January. But Wednesday night’s matchup at Grand Canyon University wasn’t something Brian Dutcher and the SDSU program initially had factored in for this final season in the conference.

The Antelopes were approved for an early entry to the Mountain West to better transition the two sides and get things moving in motion. If we’re being completely honest, it was a brilliant move to gain much needed visibility for the excitable young basketball school’s brand.

It’s the kind of farewell move you’d come to expect from the Mountain West’s leadership and it’s already paid off dividends.

The Lopes (11-6, 4-2) led by HC Bryce Drew are coming off a court storming 84-74 victory at home over then 1st place Utah State. GCU were underdogs to the then undefeated Aggies. Since then USU has lost another one, this time returning home as they fell to the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Tuesday night.

It’s a scene the Aztecs know very well having lost just two seasons ago on the same Global Credit Union Arena floor. For Miles Byrd and a few others still on the team, they remember it well.

The Aztecs these days (13-4, 7-0) are rolling. Winners of the last 7 games, including their most recent 83-79 thrilling home victory over New Mexico last Saturday evening. They stand at a perfect 7-0 and are all alone at the top of the conference. The team is finding ways to win even when they put themselves in precarious situations.

GCU are slight -1.5 point favorites to win after breaking news regarding Magoon Gwath’s unavailability for the Aztecs. With or without Gwath, GCU has proven themselves quite a bit over the years to anyone who knows ball on the west coast. But they would still very much like to remind everyone they’re no longer just the loud purple school with the oddly passive mascot but very aggressive student section.

And so here we come to this game’s 3 things to watch when SDSU travels to meet GCU again.

Handling the Havocs

Let’s just get the obvious out of the way. GCU is a tough place to play on the road. The small, music blaring, student section partying, insanely close to the floor arena is maddening to visiting teams and fans. The record proves it.

Last season they ran through the year 16-1 at home and in 2023-2024 they went unbeaten at 16-0. This season they are off to an 8-2 record inside their wildly loud arena, so there is a little drop off. But not by much.

The Havocs last week allegedly spread the phone numbers of Utah State’s HC Calhoun and players before the matchup. Reportedly phone calls to their numbers rang uncontrollably creating a very hostile form of intimidation.

Depending on how you feel about this sort of thing, you either love the gamesmanship or you want to lock the students up responsible for such action and teach them a lesson.

The Aztecs have to stay focused. By game-time who knows how players react to such harassment. The issue for the Aztecs has been losing their focus at times each game. Even after creating big leads on their opponents, the game alone is often too much to keep them steady.

Scoring droughts and defensive lapses have been the usual issue plaguing SDSU. The team has not reacted well especially in the second half of games when adjustments have been made. Last week SDSU was able to overcome against New Mexico, but the big lead was squandered until the very end.

It’s great to show the clutch gene and stick together to pull out a win, but on the road in this game is going to put those traits to the ultimate test.

Perhaps the Aztecs have a more focused ‘us against the world’ mentality with this years team. We’ll have to see if they are able to battle through the environment and come out on the other side with a win—or even without any technical or flagrant frustration fouls.

BIG Tested

The second factor is the battle between the bigs. GCU stands tall with two players above 7 foot or taller in their rotation, #17 Efe Demirel and #14 Dennis Evans. Both are young players and not even the most dominant bigs on the roster.

Meanwhile senior forward #32 Wilhelm Breidenbach stands at 6’10”, the best man on the boards junior #31 Nana Owusu-Anane measures at 6’8″ 240 lbs. and he nearly averages a double-double in points and rebounds.

None of these bigs are superstars on the national scene that are in the same class as some of the bigs SDSU has previously seen against Michigan or Arizona. But, as a unit they come together as a tough defensive group. GCU currently stands as a top-50 defensive efficiency in the nation just a few spots ahead of the Aztecs. That’s saying something.

With no Magoon, the Aztecs can still measure up with Miles Heide, Pharoah Compton, Jeremiah Oden and seldom used Thokbor Majak. But it will not be easy. A constant effort of boxing out, muscling up and staying out of foul trouble is going to be a focus.

GCU tends to run a four guard lineup often and the Aztecs used that strategy against New Mexico without Magoon on the court as well. So the matchup of the bigs may not be one that completely gets exposed on the stat lines, but it could be a factor that puts a team over the top if they can utilize theirs in the most effective way.

Stand And Deliver

The final factor centers squarely on whether one of each team’s offensive leaders decides this is the night to make things simple. The Aztecs have been getting consistent scoring from the wings—especially from guards who can both shoot and initiate like BJ Davis and Miles Byrd. When they do this, the entire offense loosens up.

But who will it be on this night to deliver the first win for SDSU on the road against GCU? Miles Byrd put up a fantastic 21 points performance with a mix of steals, rebounds, blocks, assists and the like. Will we see that effectiveness again? Will it be BJ Davis who has been capable of getting very hot off the bench and firing game winners? Or perhaps another capable scorer on the roster.

For GCU senior #10 Jaden Henley averages just under 17 points per game on the season and is experienced enough to make this game his own. Having transferred in from UNLV, DePaul, and Minnesota, Henley is familiar with the Aztecs players and is playing his best ball of his career.

This is also the kind of matchup where physicality wears on a team like GCU over 40 minutes, assuming SDSU actually leans into it. The Aztecs bench is out scoring its opponent’s reserves by almost 22 points a game. If the Aztecs can limit Henley, who will step up for the Lopes to get those tough buckets that keep the Havoc going crazy.

GCU Will Win If:

If Grand Canyon is going to pull the upset, it starts with making shots early and refusing to let SDSU’s offense settle in to quiet the Havoc down. Win the rebounding battle, force SDSU into many tough shots and turn the game into waves of turnovers from the Aztecs.

SDSU Will Win If:

On the other side, San Diego State wins this game if they can outlast GCU’s intensity and stay focused on each possession. Don’t fall into scoring droughts led by the momentum of the arena’s emotion, but stay on the attack and continue to play loose and fearless.