San Diego State vs Colorado State
Viejas Arena
Tip-Off: 7:30 pm PST
TV: FS1
The Aztecs return home to Viejas Arena this Wednesday night when they host Colorado State and renew their longtime Mountain West rivalry in a key mid-season matchup. It will be the first game for the 1st place Aztecs since their defeat of New Mexico back on January 17th.
After a split on their last two games on the road Brian Dutcher’s team is set to take on last season’s conference tournament champions the Rams. For as much success as his team has had in the conference season so far, this game features two teams badly trying to position themselves in this years tournament. Both will likely need to win it all if they have any hopes for the NCAA Tournament.
The road to that MW Tournament championship usually runs through SDSU. This year is no different as the Aztecs (14-5, 8-1 MW) have been the league’s top team. Meanwhile the Rams (12-8, 3-6 MW) are looking to rebound after some uneven conference results.
Historically these two have faced each other plenty through the years. The Aztecs have played the Rams for the 2nd most games in program history. From the previous 97 matchups SDSU has clearly been the better of the two, as they’ve been victorious 53-44 times. For more recent accuracy SDSU has won 7 of the last 10.
The Rams just narrowly lost to Utah State last weekend. It was a game they had a large lead over the Aggies. But somehow they allowed them to come back and eventually lost on their own home court 65-61.
Here are 3 things not to miss in this heavyweight matchup.
From Weak to Elite
Another theme to watch is rebounding and second-chance opportunities. San Diego State has a modest edge here with nearly 35 total rebounds per game vs Colorado State’s roughly 31, again hinting at the Aztecs’ strength on the glass.
But it wasn’t always the case for SDSU this season. In 8 of the first 14 games this season SDSU had allowed their opponent to grab double-digit offensive rebounds. That often allowed so many extra positions translating into frustrating buckets that either kept teams in the game to build their confidence like Troy or San Jose State. Or it allowed teams to compound their leads and put the Aztecs away like Michigan or Arizona.
The last 5 games however SDSU has turned it all around putting together the longest string of games not allowing any double-digit offensive boards. Overall rebounding is 78.3% defensive rebounds which is good for 98 percentile and one of the best in the nation. The results have really helped the Aztecs in winning 4 of the last 5.
If the Rams can tilt the boards their way — particularly on the offensive end — they could swing extra possessions and keep this game tight in the final minutes.
Hitting and Defending the Three
One of the biggest storylines will be whether Colorado State can slow down SDSU’s offensive efficiency. The Aztecs enter the game averaging 81.3 points per game on .481 field-goal shooting, compared to Colorado State’s 77.9 PPG on .502 shooting — numbers that pretty much say both teams can score in bunches and execute well on offense.
Analysts tracking pace and efficiency rate SDSU slightly ahead in offensive execution, but the Rams’ ability to shoot well inside the arc keeps them competitive. In these conference games every possession matters.
Defensively, pressure and turnovers will be critical. The Aztecs defense has been where it hangs it’s hat on historically, often ranking among the conference’s best in taking care of the ball and generating stops. It appears they’ve found and started to dig into their cultural identity as the Aztec wins have featured strong defensive showings that turned into transition offense.
However defending the three seems to be a curious case that is more than meets the eye. On the surface it feels as though every game against the Aztecs a player or a team has a record breaking night in shooting the deep ball. Not so fast.
While the Aztecs aren’t’ exactly shutting teams out behind the arc, they are just middle of the pack in conference—allowing opponents 33%. Not great, but not exactly the crushing number it feels like.
But the three is the great equalizer at specific moments. The Aztecs come in at #3 in the MW knocking down 37%. Sounds great until you realize Colorado State is by far the best shooting team hitting 41%. Two players, #2 Brandon Rechsteiner and #1 Josh Pascarelli both are hovering at 42% and 44%.
In their most recent game SDSU shot a staggering 62% from three against UNLV. If SDSU can disrupt CSU’s rhythm, stop the 3-ball, and convert turnovers into points, it could be a wrap for the Rams in Viejas. Cam the Ram might be chugging down all that nasty Old Aggie beer of theirs just to cope with the loss.
Don’t Hate the Player …
For Colorado State, it’s #35 Kyle Jorgensen that makes things go as their key man in this matchup howver. The Rams’ leading scorer has been consistently putting up numbers averaging about 13 a game. His ability to create offense and space for teammates hit their shots will be essential if CSU hopes to keep pace with the Aztecs.
On the San Diego State side, Miles Byrd is the catalyst on both ends of the floor. Byrd has been a go-to scorer with big outings this season, including a 23-point performance while shooting a perfect 5-of-5 from three in a recent win over UNLV. His scoring versatility and playmaking on the defensive steals & blocks gives SDSU a dynamic edge in every matchup. Question is can he put it all together at that high level more than two games in a row?
Colorado State Will Win If …
Colorado State must control the glass and limit second-chance points. If the Rams can outperform San Diego State on offensive rebounds and convert those extra possessions into points, they’ll keep the game within striking distance late.
San Diego State Will Win If …
San Diego State can win by dictating a faster pace and forcing turnovers — creating transition opportunities where their efficient shooting can put early pressure on Colorado State’s defense.
Wednesday’s showdown promises to be a compelling mix of offense and tactical adjustments as both teams vie for critical Mountain West positioning.
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