Before the start of the 2023-2024 San Diego State men’s basketball season, there were several questions on the minds of many Aztecs’ faithful. How good would this year’s team be? Could they match the top-25 rankings, conference titles, and deep March Madness run of the previous year’s squad? Who would step into the roles vacated by experienced, winning players like Nathan Mensah, Matt Bradley, Adam Seiko, and Aguek Arop?
Thirteen non-conference games into the season and Aztecs’ fans have several satisfying answers to their questions.
How good is the 2023-2024 team? Pretty good. SDSU has compiled a nice 11-2 record having faced one of the toughest non-conference schedules with wins over PAC-12 foes Washington, Cal, and Stanford, a big 25-point blowout of St. Mary’s on a neutral floor, and an even more impressive 10-point win over the Bulldogs of Gonzaga in The Kennel.
While Aztec Nation clamored over the January 1, 2024 AP poll showing Gonzaga (#24) rated above the Aztecs (#26) despite losing on the court and having four losses total, the fact is the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t care much for that poll.
Instead, in the rankings that do matter—NET and KenPom—SDSU scores higher marks than the darlings of the WCC. Specifically, for games through Jan. 1, SDSU sits at #22 in NET and #24 in KenPom. Gonzaga, rated higher in the AP, checks in at #56 in NET and #28 in KenPom.
It’s All Good
Leading the charge for the Aztecs this season have been two players new to the starting lineup – Jaedon LeDee and Reese Waters. LeDee, the senior from Houston, Texas, started the season like a man possessed. He dominated the paint scoring and rebounding and continues to flash a consistent 15 to 18-foot jumper that has made him the team’s number one scoring option most nights.
Through the non-conference slate, LeDee is averaging 21.5 points per game. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding (9.2 per game), blocked shots (8) and field goal percentage. His high marks in points and rebounds came in a one-man show against Washington when he went off for 34 points and 17 rebounds.
Waters, the junior transfer from USC, has fit in seamlessly with his Aztecs teammates. The fluidity in which he plays speaks to his confidence in his physical abilities, but also his game’s technical skillset. Using a solid mid-range game, Waters, the MWC Preseason Newcomer of the Year, ranks second on the team at 14.3 points per game. He’s also contributing 4 rebounds a contest.
But where the team feels Waters’ presence is in clutch moments. Like fellow guard Micah Parrish, Waters relishes the opportunity to stem an opponent’s run with a big shot or key rebound. Upon second glance of the Gonzaga game, one sees Waters stepping up and taking and making big shots, hustling for loose balls, and securing a rebound on either end of the floor. The guy makes plays that wins games, pure and simple.
The SDSU offense appears to have a bit better flow this year compared to the last couple of seasons. With more capable scorers able to stretch the floor, the Aztecs score 77.7 points per game, up from the 71.2 mark of last year’s team. The team is shooting 44.3% from the floor and 33.3% from beyond the three-point line. For comparison’s sake, the 2022-2023 team shot 43.8% from the field and 34.8% from distance.
As for the other newcomers, Jay Pal has come on to raise the level of his game in the last month. The Campbell transfer got off to a bit of a slow start after battling some injuries in the off-season, but he has flashed instances of why he was a central import for Coach Dutcher’s staff on this team.
Despite being undersized physically, Pal has shown a willingness to use his length coupled with a high motor to battle on the boards. He picked up 4 rebounds against Gonzaga matching his season high.
A few games earlier, his offensive rebound proved vital leading to the last-second basket by Parrish that sunk UC Irvine for the second year in a row. The senior forward can score both in the paint and from the outside, and will likely be counted on to make even bigger contributions as the team begins MWC games.
Potential Pitfalls
Heading into conference play, SDSU fans can’t help but have a few concerns about their squad despite the early success. Final Four hero Lamont Butler has struggled to find a consistent shooting stroke. His troubles from the free throw line (36%) are startling for someone as good as he is.
At times, it seems Butler is pressing, trying too hard to be the player Aztecs fans have elevated in status since his game winner against Florida Atlantic in the national semifinal. Once Butler compounds his confidence to his 18 point performance against Stanford and backcourt mate Darrion Trammell shows healthy consistency of his Gonzaga first half, this team will hit another gear.
Another concern expressed by San Diego State supporters is over the team’s press break. In games against Washington and most recently Gonzaga, the Aztecs struggled to get the ball across the midline under full-court pressure.
Despite executing well in the first half when faced with the Bulldogs’ press, things changed once the intensity ramped up in the second half as Gonzaga scrambled to cut into a double-digit deficit.
Whether it’s poor decision-making by the guards, lack of hard cuts into open space, or not taking a step back from pressure to survey the floor, the answers to how the Aztecs can handle the press better will be relayed from the coaches to the players in practices leading up to conference games. SDSU is blessed with one of the best, most experienced and cohesive coaching staffs in the country. They will get this part figured out.
Coming ‘Round The Mountain
If non-conference results are to be believed, the Mountain West will be one tough conference this year. As the new year begins, the league has five teams in the top 38 of the NET rankings. Leading the way is Preseason Player of the Year Isaiah Stevens and Colorado State.
The graduate guard has the Rams off to a 13-1 start to the season and a #13 ranking in the AP poll. Colorado State checks in at #15 in NET and #30 in KenPom. The Rams defeated a talented New Mexico Lobo team Tuesday night decisively at home and will for sure climb higher in both the polls and confidence.
Joining Colorado State with solid early season resumes are Nevada, 13-1, #34 NET, New Mexico, 12-2, #36 NET, and Utah State, 13-1, #38 NET. But, the schedules of these teams don’t quite measure up to the one that SDSU has played.
NET currently ranks San Diego State’s Strength of Schedule for the non-conference at #22. For Colorado State its #118, with Nevada at #253, New Mexico #313 and Utah State #249. Let’s see how those teams do when they travel out on the road and face much stiffer competition.
The non-conference is behind us. Now’s the time SDSU sets out to defend its MWC regular season and conference tournament championships.
Mountain West play begins for the Aztecs with a home game Wednesday, January 3 versus Fresno State on Montezuma Mesa at Viejas Arena. Game time is 7:30pm with Fox Sports 1 and San Diego Sports 760 with the coverage.
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