Should we be nervous about this Aztecs team?
Despite being 4-1 in the last 5 conference games, many fans are feeling that way about this team. The conquerors of Houston and Creighton in the non-conference schedule have not looked themselves recently; barely squeaking out wins against the bottom of the conference and taking a bad loss to 6th place UNLV at home.
The flurry of all of this activity has knocked the Aztecs toward the proverbial tournament at-large bubble.
Poor Shooting
In their out of conference schedule, the Aztecs shot 36.9% on 21 attempts per game from 3-point range. Over the last 5 games? 29.8% on 24 attempts per game. The bottom line is the Aztecs are chucking up more 3s and missing them.
These Four Factors are key predictors to winning basketball games and heavily influence efficiency stats such as the Ken Pom ratings.
1. Effective Field Goal %
2. Turnover %
3. Offensive Rebounding %
4. Free Throw Attempts to Field Goal Attempts
eFG % accounts for the fact that 3’s are worth more points than 2’s and is the most important of the Four Factors. Teams that have the highest differential between their eFG% and their opponents’ eFG% tend to be the best teams.
In the 3-games of the Players Era Tournament against Creighton, Oregon and Houston, the Aztecs eFG% was 53.1% while holding their opponents to 45.8% (7.3% difference).
In the past 5 games in Mountain West play? 49.8% to 47% (2.8% difference).
So Why The Slide All of a Sudden?
There are 2 reasons for the slide. First, the Aztecs guard trio of Miles Byrd, Nick Boyd and BJ Davis are in a shooting slump from deep. Collectively, they are shooting 25% (19-75) from 3 over the last 5 games. Compare that to the Players Era Tournament where they shot 37% (17-46).
This is a guard dominant team and the Aztecs’ success on the offensive end hinges on solid all-around play from the guards especially shooting.
Second, the Aztecs perimeter defense has not been as strong as it was at the beginning of the season. SDSU is surrendering a lot of uncontested or late contested shots from the 3-point line.
Over aggressiveness on defense in trying to steal the ball by helping off of opponents has created open looks and teams are making SDSU pay for the gamble. Opponents are shooting 34.1% from 3 during this 5 game stretch which ranks the Aztecs a mid 6th in the conference- a statistic the Aztecs are known for being best in the league for.
We can only speculate on the causes for this decline in play. I surmise they are a combination of physical fatigue, mental frustration and trying to overcompensate for poor shooting.
The Aztecs had a full week of rest and preparation for the Players Era tournament and only played a game every 4.5 days in the non conference schedule.
SDSU is in the middle of the Mountain West schedule grind where they play a game every 3.7 days. Less practice, less preparation, more travel, more games (with some at altitude) takes its toll on a young team not mentally prepared for the wall it has hit.
For many of these young Aztecs, this is their first go round with the grueling Mountain West round robin schedule. Will they be able to push through the wall?
Coach Dutcher’s team got a much needed bye this week to prepare for Colorado State on Saturday and the back half of its conference schedule. Let’s hope with the extra time SDSU recharges their batteries, works on areas where they can get better and gets back to the form they showed at the Players Era Tournament in Las Vegas way back on Thanksgiving.
Sons of Montezuma will be at Moby Arena cheering on the Aztecs to victory on Saturday night. Stay tuned for more coverage as the Kiss The Rings podcast crew hit the road together for the first time this season.
In other news Miles Byrd has been named in the prestigious Julius Erving Award top-10 list. The award is honored to the best small forward in the college game. Byrd will continue to receive these kind of accolades as his all around performance this season has been nothing short of earning him star status.
Byrd, the Aztecs redshirt sophomore wing player is 13.8 points per game, 2 steals, 1 block, while knocking down 36% from 3-point distance and has shown a flair for clutch play in the game’s most pressure filled moments. Congratulations to Miles on this treasured distinction.
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