A battle of metrics & muscle when the Aztecs host the Broncos Saturday night

Alright everybody get your popcorn, pepto bismol, propranolol—whichever your preference really—have ’em handy, because the Cardiac-Aztecs are back in town this Saturday.

The San Diego State Aztecs (16-6, 9-4) host the Boise State Broncos (17-7, 9-4) for a rock’em–sock’em, bare knuckles, no holds barred grudge match that is guaranteed to go four quarters—if this was the NBA. Never-mind. Two halves and maybe some change will definitely be spent in this is NCAA sanctioned barn burner.

Tip off is scheduled at Viejas Arena for 7 p.m. PST. and guess what? For your additional viewing pleasure this game will feature the coordinated & daunted colored dress code. Some may call it a black out. But don’t let that scare you—Aztecs play real well when wearing it.

And sometimes they don’t.

Either way, when the Aztecs take on the Broncos it will be a battle between two of the three teams tied for 3rd place in the Mountain West Conference. The other is Colorado State—but we don’t have much good to say about them right now … (cough) Old Aggie Lager stinks (cough).

No one in the conference wants to end the season beyond 3rd place. Especially in this years Mountain West tournament bracket. While the league is certainly in the grips of New Mexico or Utah State (both do play each other this weekend btw), overall the league has somewhat cannibalized itself of any real national contender to speak of.

And that’s a shame. Or is it?

Personally I don’t want any other teams rivaling my Aztecs for conference supremacy in the minds of the nation. The Aztecs won the conference championship outright and made the National Championship two years ago and as far as I’m concerned each year they will do the same. It’s a lot, I know.

Wyoming (11-14, 4-10) came within a few shots of taking down the Lobos this week and we’ve all seen what San Jose State is capable of on any given night. Anyone can lose and these Broncos are no bottom dwellers.

Boise comes into Viejas with a renewed sense of hope for their season. Winners of 4 in a row they trail behind only New Mexico for the hottest team in the conference.

The Aztecs beat them soundly 76-68 in the teams first matchup of the year. SDSU won that game stealing it on the road, in an arena they’ve found extremely tough to do in Coach Brian Dutcher’s tenure so far.

It was an accomplishment for such a young team, but it sure does feel like years ago. The Aztecs have been playing with fire the last month or so, winners in six of their last eight. But of those six, all but one could have easily been losses the same.

Now that we are mid February this game has a much different complexion to it.

“They’re metrically ahead of us. I’m not a metric guy.” said Coach Brian Dutcher on SD Sports 760’s Coaches Show. They’re ahead of us in the NET, they’re ahead of us in the KENPOM. And it’s a big game for both teams. If you want an at large consideration you’ve got to win the game. It’s important for both teams we both know it. We don’t want to put extra pressure but it’s an important game.”

Overall the Broncos have better offensive efficiency scoring an average of 77 points per game on 47% from the field. Compared to the Aztecs 71 points per game and 43% field goal percentage.

Both teams are near the bottom conference wise in three pointers with the Aztecs at 33% and the Broncos hitting 32%. The big difference here are free throws.

The Aztecs struggle not only to get to the line but also scoring when they do. SDSU’s 68% is coming on just 396 attempts. Boise State’s 77% is 2nd best in the league and on 525 attempts.

Most everything coming into this game tells me the Broncos should win. Their last 4 games they’ve won by an average of 17 points and they come in with 8 days of rest to prepare for this revenge match.

Tyson Degenhart who shot perhaps his worst game as a collegiate player the last go round vs SDSU, is still on pace to average around 17-18 points per game and is a Karl Malone Award watch list member. Don’t expect him to have a repeat performance this time around.

The Aztecs on the other hand are a complete anomaly at this point. Living on the edge and scoring 17-0 runs playing only one half of basketball can get you by against lower caliber opponents. But if they want to be in the top 3 of the conference bracket they must take care of home court Saturday.

The aggressive attacking the rim nature Nick Boyd, BJ Davis, and Miles Byrd demonstrated against San Jose State this week must continue to lead the charge.

Magoon Gwath’s emergence has been sorely needed with an ailing Jared Coleman-Jones not at full strength. But as great as Gwath’s three double-doubles in the last five games has been, the talented backcourt must work together to open up opportunities for the rest of the team.

“We sit there and complain about our rebounding every game to our kids.” said Coach Brian Dutcher this week on SD Sports 760’s Coaches Show.

“With that being said, if you look at the stats we’re the top offensive rebounding team in the Mountain West and we’re #3 in defensive rebounding.”

“Yet as coaches we sit there and feel we haven’t reached out potential in that regards. There’s way more to be done.”

Last time the Aztecs flexed their muscle out-rebounding the Broncos considerably. If the shots aren’t falling come Saturday night the battle on the boards may be the biggest indicator of who wins this physical game between two rivals.

Free throws, attacking the rim, and rebounding—our pathway to victory and stopping the Broncos. If not, it might be the pathway towards a very shaky 1st round matchup in the Mountain West Tournament.