Week-1 has come and the Aztecs passed their first test of the season. Wasn’t that fun Aztec Nation? It was for us who were there in the building.
This early in the year things can change very quickly. So here we take a closer look at the rest of the season, and rank the schedule in five tiers, now that we know a little more about each team after seeing them.
Tier 1: Easy Wins
1. Stony Brook Seawolves
Okay, I get it. The Aztecs just opened up the season against the Stony Brook Sea Wolves. Sounds like a unaffiliated minor league baseball team doesn’t it? The game was a fantastic beatdown on Thursday night. Our Aztecs beat those Long Island boys like they owed us rent—or like they owed us vacation Airbnb money. You get the point.
The Aztecs ran the ball, passed the ball, kicked the ball, and tackled every Sea Wolf player in sight. It was the best performance that we’ve ever seen from a Sean Lewis coached team—bar none.
But let’s get real—Stony Brook is the only FCS opponent on the schedule. They’ve only beaten one FBS team in their entire history, and need we mention they have only been playing football since 1984. Though it pains me to say this, but that’s still younger than me.
Yes, Stony Brook ranked Top-25 in all FCS last season for the first time. Yes, their head coach Billy Cosh is like Sean Lewis—also in his 2nd season. And yes, they do feature an All-American caliber running back Roland Dempster. But Texas A&M Commerce ain’t on the schedule next weekend.
I’m glad our boys beat the snot out of Stony Brook, so this ranking didn’t have to be blown up before we even started. But this is the one and only game in this first tier: The Easy Win list. Let’s move on shall we.
Tier 2: Should Be Wins
2. at Nevada Wolf Pack
In week-1 the Wolf Pack got absolutely taken apart on the road in Happy Valley by Penn State, 46-11. No surprises there. Our disdain for Nevada is well documented. Which made it that much more pleasurable to see legendary former Nevada head coach and athletic director Chris Ault’s grandson, WR Ben Scolari choose San Diego State over the Wolf Pack in his recruitment.
Nevada was a bad 3-10 last season. They beat Oregon State, Troy, and Eastern Washington—but somehow ended the year winless in Mountain West play. This season they’ve given the QB1 reigns to longtime journeyman, Chubby Purdy who was their backup last season—so there’s that.
When you watch the Wolf Pack against one of the best team’s in the country, it’s tough to compare just how much, if any, improvements were made since last season. Maybe the tough, out of conference competition, strengthens them by the time our matchup is played. Either way, Aztecs fans fully expect to win this one, even on the road. I see no reason to think otherwise.
3. Wyoming Cowboys
Week-1 saw the Cowboys on the road—barely slip by Akron 10-0. They were clearly leading Akron in mostly all categories, but barely reached the 10 point mark. Wyoming has a capable passer in Kaden Anderson who went 19 of 36 for 260 yards against the Zips. They have a nice RB in Sam Scott 29 carries for 132 yards, and a main receiver Chris Durr Jr. who snagged 8 catches 190 yards and Tuddy. So there is talent there.
Thick in the middle of a potentially hot MW Conference season race, this matchup was one of the most tightly contested of last season and surprisingly it was one of the few that went in SDSU’s favor. This year should hopefully be a similar outcome and perhaps a similar flow of the game scoring wise too.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if this Aztecs team puts even more of the clamps down on Wyoming. The way we see it, so much attention will be focused on Trey White this first half of the season. By the time this game comes around, the defense should be plenty used to adjusting to whatever is thrown at them in terms of quieting Trey’s performances.
Bottom line, I like our chances, especially at home.
4. at New Mexico Lobos
Here’s a newsflash, New Mexico stinks at football again. In week-1 we all saw New Mexico get in & out of Ann Arbor as quick as possible. Michigan beat the Lobos 34-17, which isn’t the worst looking score when you think about it. UNM QB Jack Layne went 31 of 47 for over 208 yards in the air, but he also threw 3 INTs.
Lobos receiver Dorian Thomas had 10 catches and 2 touchdowns, but they couldn’t get anything going on the ground to save their life. Yeah, that’s not what we were saying last season when Bronco Mendenhall’s team came to Snapdragon and absolutely punked our boys rushing the ball and a defense that took advantage of our out of sorts offense.
New year, new Lobos. Gone is Coach Mendenhall and gone are all those talented offensive talents the Lobos had. Yes they bring in a new set of transfers to basically replace the team with. But this is the final game of the season. Albuquerque is a miserable place in the dead of November for football fans. The Lobo crazies will be so preoccupied with their underachieving hoops squad, they won’t have any energy for this football game.
In hopes, the Aztecs will be playing for a bowl seed and will be plenty of motivated to win this game. As if payback for last year’s random loss wasn’t enough. Yeah, this should be a win for the Red & Black.
Tier 3: Challenging Tests
5. at Northern Illinois
Now this is where the rubber meets the road. The Aztecs will hit the road for two of three in this next tier of difficulty. At Northern Illinois is definitely a challenging test—despite the fact that this is going to be a different team than the prior year.
NIU lost almost all of their significant players on offense. But still they play a tough hard nose style of ball that gets physical—especially in the running game. Their new QB1 Josh Holst was their backup last year. He is also a bit more of a runner and knows the system. So the cupboard isn’t completely bare.
Head coach Thomas Hammock knows how to push the right buttons to get his guys fired up and they will 100% be just that to welcome the Aztecs back to their place after almost a decade since last playing each other. Not to mention NIU is joining the Mountain West next season, so there will be some heavy pride at stake.
The Huskies almost blew their week-1 game against FCS Holy Cross yesterday, 19-17. At times they looked lost, not very physical, and not very smart. But some of those optics may be fleeting, especially for a new team getting their feet under them together for the first time. I’d expect by the time the Aztecs hit DeKalb, Illinois, this Husky team will be much improved and with more confidence.
6. Colorado State
These two teams last met in 2023, a narrow 22-19 victory for CSU at home. It was part of the 2nd string of four game losing streaks endured by SDSU in Brady Hoke’s final season. The Rams since then have brought in Jay Norvell and to his credit Norvell coached teams have always played SDSU tough stemming from his days at Nevada. There his teams went 3-2.
Jay Norvell had his Rams within one game of the Mountain West Championship game last year. Of course Fresno State ruined their chances with a crushing defeat. Though they may be without some familiar faces this season, at QB1 Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is the returning third-year starter. This is key to their success.
Colorado State comes to San Diego this season and even though they lost convincingly to Washington last night 38-21, it was a game they were truly competing toe-to-toe with for 3 quarters. The performance they put forth last night gave us a big clue as to what caliber of team our Aztecs will face. They are talented on both sides of the ball and have a scheme their team knows and believes in. It will definitely be a challenge.
7. at Hawai’i
We are Hawai’i’s daddy right now. At least for the last five seasons it’s been this way. The Aztecs have squeaked out some of the narrowest victories against the Rainbow Warriors and each time it seems to get closer and closer. Last year it took three Trey White sacks and some late heroics to close the game out in San Diego. This year may be a different story.
Coach Timmy Chang is back and his Bows are off to a great start. Yes they were favored against Stanford who is absolutely trash this season. But they took care of business and beat the Cardinal in the game’s final moments thanks to this sportscenter field goal.
All that good momentum came to a crashing hault when in week-1 the Bows got bounced in Tuscon, as Arizona put the brakes down 40-6. Young QB Micah Alejado not at 100% for this game, was not that good. But this Hawai’i team plays very different on the islands though.
By October this matchup for SDSU will be in the middle of the season where both teams need a victory early in conference play. The odds should be in the Aztecs favor with recent history is taken into account, but either way it should be a near coin flip as these games have gone.
Tier 4: Wildcard Rivals
8. at Fresno State
These two teams have battled in some of the most heated, competitive, and weird games in their histories. SDSU has the all time edge, but Fresno has played spoiler more times as of late. Aztecs got the win most recently and after the two not playing each other last year, the Aztecs have held onto the Old Oil Can trophy firmly.
Fresno in week zero got bounced by Kansas in their brand new renovated stadium. It wasn’t a good showing for the Bulldogs. Week-1 they absolutely embarrassed Georgia Southern 42-14. The Bulldogs ran ALL OVER Southern. RB Bryson Donelson had 167 yards on 23 carries, and 1 TD. Backup runner, Rayshon Luke had 96 yards on 10 carries, and 3 TDs.
Surprisingly the Bulldogs were the narrow underdog, so it was very critical that they come out and perform well in front of the home crowd under new head coach Matt Entz’s first game. New QB EJ Warner wasn’t accurate, throwing two INTs, so maybe there is something there.
Fortunately for the Aztecs they will be fresh off a bye when they travel to the valley. But anything can happen in this matchup.
9. San Jose State
The much lesser of the two rivals is San Jose State. Not the same energy or craziness may be attached to this matchup, but often times things can get a bit wacky between the two. The Aztecs have won 9 of the last 12 meetings but most recently lost 24-13 back in 2023.
The Spartans were figured to be a contender in the Mountain West this season under 2nd year head coach Ken Nuimatalolo. They struggled out of the gate against Central Michigan dropping their week-1 game matchup 16-14, when their kicker missed the game winner. A brutal way to go considering they face the Texas Longhorns next weekend.
Expect the Spartans to play mad the rest of the year out. By season’s end this matchup may hold with it some real implications for both sides. Not going to be easy.
Tier 5: So You’re Saying There’s a Chance
10. at Washington State
Up next weekend is the Aztecs road trip to Pullman, Washington to face the Cougars. This will be a true test of seeing how far off or how dialed in this SDSU team is after their big opening victory. Wazzu is a tough place to play, but don’t tell that to Idaho. The Vandals last night took the Cougars to the brink of destruction in a 13-10 near upset.
It was as ugly a game as it sounds. Wazzu gained only 8 rushing yards against an FCS opponent. Compare that to Idaho’s 188. Wazzu isn’t the same as last year. There’s a crazy amount of new components to their team, starting with a new head coach and QB.
But hold hour horses, our Aztecs haven’t proven anything to this point and it will be the Aztecs first road test of the season. The Cougars still carry a ton of the old Pac-12 residue on them, which will give them the edge in their minds and perhaps the minds of college football talking heads.
Good thing the game is played on the field and no where else. The Aztecs will have as good of a chance as anyone. But at least until we see it, this game will be regarded as a very tough road challenge.
11. Cal
The cowards of Berkeley, CAL chased East Coast money to join the ACC. Last season the Aztecs hung toe to toe with Justin Wilcox’s program. Only problem was our Aztecs had two left feet on offense. This go round the Golden Bears travel down to Snapdragon and if the Aztecs can pull off the win against Washington State, the momentum may very well be on the side of SDSU.
Having their first bye week in preparation for CAL helps—and it appears they are really going to need it. CAL put a revenge for last year sized beat down on Oregon State last night, 34-15—in Corvallis mind you. That is not the easiest place to play.
Given they are choosing to start true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele ahead of Ohio State transfer Devin Brown goes to show how confident coach Wilcox is in his decision. It paid off for one game as Sagapolutele threw for 234 yards, 3 TDs, on 20 of 30 attempts.
Maybe Oregon State just isn’t that good this season. Either way this matchup on paper is still a daunting one considering what the Aztecs’ output offensively was last year against them. But just as this tier’s name suggests, you’re telling me there’s a chance. Yes there is.
12. Boise State
Boise State is back as the preseason picks for conference champions. If Thursday’s embarrassing loss to South Florida is any indication, the Mountain West may be more open than we originally thought. The Broncos apparently may need some time to adjust to life after Ashton Jeanty. That notion doesn’t sound all that unpredictable, but putting up one touchdown in a season opener is not what anyone had in mind.
Nevertheless, it’s only one game. Coach Spencer Danielson should be able to get his team right and focus back on the plan at hand. Boise State will still be counted on to win the league. Eastern Washington, a bye week, and then Air Force should be a good chance for the Broncos to rebuild some momentum on into the season.
This matchup used to be a wide open back & forth affair. The Aztecs and Broncos were well on their way towards a promising rivalry full of fun, toughness and programs ready to jump to the power ranks. If the Aztecs are to be taken seriously, they must be able to take down the Broncos again at some point with consistency. This matchup in November will be tailored made for just that.
So this is our ranking the rest of San Diego State’s games by difficulty. Are there any sleeper games you feel will be tougher than where we’ve made our choices? Let us know in the comments and also add who you think SDSU should consider scheduling in the future.
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