San Diego State vs. New Mexico: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds & Prediction

The Mountain-West-leading 9-2 Aztecs topped San Jose State to stay perfect at home. Now SDSU must finish victorious in New Mexico to control their destiny.

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Albuquerque, NM– The San Diego State Aztecs (9-2, 6-1 MW) travel to New Mexico to face the rising Lobos (8-3, 5-2 MW) for one final Mountain West conference play match. Next year the Aztecs commence to the PAC-12, and the Lobos remain in the 2026 Mountain West, to take on new conference entrants including UTEP and Northern Illinois.

The Lobos are hot with five straight wins and won’t easily yield to the Aztecs. Nevertheless, the Aztecs are on top of the Mountain for a reason, and victory in New Mexico earns SDSU both the regular season title and rights to host the 2025 Mountain West Championship at Snapdragon Stadium. SDSU must remain vigilant against the talented third-place Lobos.

Now, let’s take a closer look at New Mexico.

GET TO KNOW THE 2025 LOBOS

New Mexico hired Lobos head coach Jason Eck in December of 2024. He brought 26 years of coaching experience including 3 years as University of Idaho’s head coach. He led Idaho to a FCS playoff berth in all three seasons, and increased Idaho’s win total each season. In 2024 Eck managed a 10-4 season and their second straight FCS Playoff quarterfinals appearance. In the 22 years prior, the Vandals had only managed two winning seasons.

Eck was an offensive lineman for the Wisconsin Badgers from 1995-98 and began his coaching career at Wisconsin as a grad assistant. From there, he coached the offensive line for many programs before becoming Idaho’s head coach in 2021.

Last week, coach Eck and the Lobos bested Air Force 20-3 on the road, bringing them to 8-3 on the season and in 3^rd place in the MWC. They are 5-0 at home, and 3-3 on the road.

Against Air Force on Saturday, Lobos QB1 Jack Layne threw 10-for-15 for 105 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. He ran eight times for 24 yards (3 ypc) and a touchdown. Running back Damon Bankston carried the ball 10 times for 61 yards (6.1 ypc) and a touchdown. He caught three passes for 27 yards (9 ypr). Wide receiver Keagan Johnson had four receptions on seven targets for 55 yards (13.8 ypr).

The Lobos are underdogs in Friday’s match, but by less than one field goal. They are also in play for the Mountain West Championship and will bring serious intensity. With five-game win streak momentum, and for a chance at the championship, they must first defeat the Aztecs, and that is no small task.

New Mexico averages 28.4 points per game (63rd in the nation), while defensively, they allow 23.0 points per game (57th). New Mexico averages 375.2 total yards per game (222.5 passing and 152.7 rushing), while allowing 348.9 total yards per game (242.7 passing and 106.2 rushing).

Offensively, Layne leads New Mexico with 2,271 passing yards with 66.8% completed passes and 12 touchdowns. Bankston leads the team in rushing yards with 522, while Johnson has a team-high 54 receptions for 693 receiving yards.

Defensively, Jaxton Eck has a team-high 115 tackles (59 solo), while Keyshawn James-Newby leads the Lobos with 7 sacks, and Austin Brawley leads with 2 interceptions.

THE MOUNTAIN WEST #1 AZTECS

San Diego State, with their 9-2 record this season, is sitting 1st in the MWC. They have a 6-0 home record and are 3-2 on the road. San Diego State is coming off a 25-3 home win over San Jose State where just one field goal prevented a fourth shutout on the season.

Against the Spartans, QB1 Jayden Denegal led the Aztecs with 81 yards on 8-of-16 passing (50.0%) for no touchdowns and no interceptions. He carried the ball five times for -4 yards and one rushing touchdown. Running back Lucky Sutton totaled 79 rushing yards on 20 carries (4.0 ypc), scoring one touchdown on the ground. He added one catch for -3 yards. Wide receiver Donovan Brown hauled in two receptions for 63 yards (31.5 ypr).

San Diego State averages 25.4 points per game, (82nd in the nation), while defensively, they allow 11.6 points per game (T2nd). San Diego State averages 340.5 total yards per game (152.9 passing and 187.6 rushing), while allowing 262.9 total yards per game (103.2 rushing and 159.7 passing).

Offensively, Denegal leads San Diego State with 1,645 passing yards with 58.9% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Sutton leads the team in rushing yards with 1,127, while Jordan Napier has a team-high 48 receptions for 629 receiving yards. Napier, however, is out for the remainder of this season with a lower leg injury.

Defensively, Owen Chambliss has a team-high 99 total tackles (58 solo), while Trey White and Ryan Henderson lead the team in sacks, with 6 each. Cornerback Chris Johnson has a team-high 4 interceptions.

KEYS TO A SAN DIEGO STATE VICTORY

1. Break The Bankston

Damon Bankston is not just the Lobos’ leading rusher, he’s also a pass target. Against Air Force, Bankston was the leading rusher with 61 yards on ten carries and made three receptions for 9 yards apiece. As a critical element of the Lobos’ offense, if Bankston is stymied, it will force increased passing and quarterback runs. Both scenarios will increase the probability of turnovers and impair Lobos offensive production.

2. Penetrate The Pocket

Jack Layne is effective, but he hasn’t faced the Aztecs’ stout defense in 2025. A hurried Layne is going to be forced into compromising situations. Since coach Eck was an offensive lineman, the Lobos’ o-line will be formidable. Still, with Chambliss, White and Henderson running downhill at Layne, he will find himself hurried and under pressure. Any off-balance slings could increase the likelihood of momentum-shifting picks.

3. Johnson On Johnson

SDSU star cornerback Chris Johnson will most likely be assigned the task of covering New Mexico’s leading wide receiver Keagan Johnson. Last week (Chris) Johnson made a “miraculous interception” on a deep pass intended for SJSU’s Kyri Shoels leaving fans and sportscasters stunned. The ball, seemingly caught by Shoels was in (Chris)Johnson’s possession once the two hit the ground. In the game, (Chris) Johnson also effectively took down several receivers with authority to minimize receptions. (Keagan) Johnson may experience serious frustration with (Chris) Johnson covering him.

4. Composure Of Champions

The Aztecs enter this road match as top of the mountain. Composure will be key in the game as the Lobos fans will be rabid. The Aztecs will have to tune out any outside forces and maintain the upper hand of this game by establishing tempo, clock control, ball security and intense situational awareness. Staying cool and on plan will help SDSU maintain game command.

PREDICTION

New Mexico has home field advantage, and the Lobos fans will show up in full force. There will be a swagger in New Mexico, but the stout Aztecs defense will overpower the Lobos’ offense, giving SDSU the upper hand. If the Aztecs offense prioritizes ball security by working their ground game, they will score effectively against New Mexico’s defense.

This is bound to be a low-scoring game, but the Aztecs will eke out the win to clinch the outright regular season title and secure Mountain West Championship hosting rights.

FINAL SCORE

San Diego State 20, New Mexico 16