“Well, we’re ready to make our annual visit to the dentist.” said SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher. That’s how you phrase playing against Air Force Academy basketball when you hold a ton of respect for the strong identity they’ve created. It’s also how you say it when you’re not holding anything back in this final season run in the Mountain West Conference.
When Air Force meets San Diego State Wednesday night, the matchup once again puts wildly contrasting styles on the same Steve Fisher court for perhaps the final time. The Falcons trying to impose precision and patience against the Aztecs’ trademark physicality and defensive edge should be entertaining.
But it shouldn’t be. The Aztecs should destroy the Falcons and I regret nothing when I say that.
Such was the case last season when the two met at Viejas Arena. SDSU embarrassed Air Force 67-38 and looked strong at 11-3. The Aztecs were feeling good until the following week getting handled by New Mexico on the road.
From there it was an up & down Mountain West schedule—one that saw the Aztecs narrowly escape the same Air Force Academy by the help of Wayne McKinney III and his miracle layup for a 1-point overtime victory just a few games later.
So basically, the Aztecs should beat up on Air Force at home again, but never say never if the team is not feeling sure of themselves. Hopefully they regained some swagger back after their most recent victory over Lamar last week. But we’ll see, not everyone rolls with swagger when it’s time to get their teeth scraped and their gums poked.
They’ve earned that reputation. Air Force comes into this game at 3-8 on the season and losers of 4 in a row. But don’t let that stand in the way of a good dentist scare tactic.
Deep Thinkers
One defining factor for Air Force is they are dedicated to execution over athleticism. Under longtime head coach Joe Scott, the Falcons run a Princeton-influenced offense built on spacing, backdoor cuts, and constant reads. Every possession is deliberate, and a grind of a game in the half court. It’s actually pretty fun to watch—if you’re into that kind of thang.
Most of us are indeed, not into that thang.
“Every time you play them you know you’re playing an academy team.” said Dutcher while addressing the media on Tuesday afternoon. “Their tough, they never give in, they play multiple defenses which is alway a concern. They’ll play a 1-1-3, zone, they’ll play a switching man.”
This can be a problem for SDSU if they are not playing together defensively—turning basketball into a thinking contest rather than a fast paced sport. The Aztecs thrive on disrupting rhythm, that discipline could become both Air Force’s greatest strength and its biggest challenge.
“I like to be comfortable knowing what I’m going to see, what I’m preparing for. And the nature of them switching defenses makes me uncomfortable. Probably more so than the team. The team will just play, but I like to feel I have an impact on the game.”
Let ’em Fly
A second factor is shooting efficiency. Air Force typically lives and dies by its accurate shooters. They spread the floor with multiple capable shooters to punish over-pursuing defenses.
Freshman forward #24 Lucas Hobin is the chief of letting the 3-ball go for the Falcons. Knocking them down at 34%, Hobin has attempted nearly 75 and averages 12 points per game.
Air Force has a trio that averages that amount of points with 6’9″ Junior Forward, #10 Caleb Walker and 6’3″ Freshman Guard Kam Sanders.
However the most successful shooter from deep is knocking down is 6’6″ sophomore forward Eli Robinson. He is knocking down 46% from deep, except he has only attempted 15 so far. Robinson manages to average 10 points per game, perhaps because he is also hitting 81% from the free throw line.
Fledgling Falcons
As you can see this Falcons team is on the younger side. The third key factor is composure against pressure. San Diego State’s defense is relentless, physical, and layered, often forcing opponents into rushed decisions and uncomfortable shots.
Air Force must handle that pressure without speeding up or abandoning its principles. Easier said than done for such a young team. Turnovers and empty possessions are especially costly for a team that relies on efficiency rather than volume.
Air Force Will Win If They …
For Air Force to beat the Aztecs, the path is narrow but clear. The Falcons must control tempo, shoot well from the perimeter, and limit live-ball turnovers that fuel SDSU’s transition game. Defensively, they need to gang rebound and make San Diego State score over length in the half court rather than through second chances or runouts.
San Diego State Will Win If They …
For the Aztecs, the formula is more familiar. San Diego State needs to dictate physicality from the opening tip, disrupt Air Force’s timing with ball pressure, and dominate the glass.
If the Aztecs turn defense into offense and force Air Force to play faster than it wants, the matchup tilts heavily in their favor. When SDSU stays patient offensively while maintaining its defensive edge, it usually turns disciplined opponents into frustrated ones by the second half.
San Diego State hosts Air Force on Wednesday, Dec 17 at 7:00pm. You can watch the game on CBS Sports Network.
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