San Diego State 19–9, (13–5 MW) vs. Boise State 18–11, (10–8 MW)
Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM PT
Location: Extra Mile Arena – Boise, Idaho
TV/Streaming: CBS Sports Network
Betting Odds & Over/Under: SDSU +1.5 Over/Under 143.5 – 144.5 points (lines subject to change)
The Aztecs, in the thick of yet another regular season conference championship race, stand at 13-5. But the closer we get to the end of this regular season, the memory of last year’s Mountain West tournament haunts me.
I like to believe had the Aztecs won just one—maybe two more games this season—that ghoulish reminder of the Broncos ending the Aztecs conference tournament run last year would somehow go away.
Tuesday night the Aztecs get another chance to defeat the Broncos which took triple overtime to do way back on January 3rd, 110-107.
Since that game the two have gone their separate ways—the Aztecs keeping pace in championship contention and the Broncos a roller coaster of inconsistency. Regardless, this game presents major challenges and is crucial for the Aztecs if they are to keep their conference championship hopes alive and build momentum leading into March Madness.
Big-Time Issues
The loss at The Pit exposed recurring problems that have followed San Diego State throughout the season, particularly against physical interior players. The Lobos’ Buljan overwhelmed the Aztecs with 24 points and 18 rebounds, including nine on the offensive glass.
That performance underscored a troubling trend: when facing big, strong post players, SDSU has struggled to control the paint. It’s a theme that has surfaced in matchups against Grand Canyon, Arizona and Michigan earlier in the year, and it remains a glaring vulnerability heading into Boise.
Rebounding, especially on the defensive end, will be at the forefront Tuesday night. The Aztecs were outworked on second-chance opportunities against the Lobos. While SDSU shot 45 percent from the field in that game—better than the Lobos’ 39 percent—the possession battle tilted heavily because of those extra opportunities and a 25-for-36 free throw disparity that favored New Mexico. The Aztecs, meanwhile, went just 13-of-22 at the line, and in a five-point loss, those misses loomed large.
Free throw consistency and late-game execution must improve. SDSU had 17 seconds on its final possession in Albuquerque but settled for a contested, off-balance three while doubled, rather than reversing the ball to generate a cleaner look. That lack of situational awareness in crunch time has surfaced in multiple close road losses this season.
The Aztecs have now dropped three of their last four, and while the conference race remains within reach, the margin for error is shrinking.
The Bright-side of the Barn
There are positives to build on. Offensively, this is one of the highest-scoring Aztec teams in four decades and they do continue to generate solid looks. Advanced shot profile splits reveal a big contrast in efficiency.
Key perimeter players such as Reese Dixon-Waters and Miles Byrd are converting corner threes at rates north of 40 percent in conference play, while their above-the-break numbers dip significantly below that.
Prioritizing corner spacing and shot selection could provide a much-needed offensive boost—especially in crunch-time.
Toughness Counts
Health is another variable. The front court leader Magoon Gwath has not appeared fully comfortable after returning from a hip injury. His performance has been a hit & miss, gradual settling back in. No doubt, SDSU is a different team when its interior presence is at full strength.
Against Boise State, interior toughness and disciplined rotations will be essential.
The Broncos enter as a dangerous home team, even if their conference record sits in the middle of the pack. Boise State has traditionally been strong vs the Aztecs especially at the Extra Mile Center. They are fully capable of turning games into physical half-court battles.
Most recently the Broncos are coming off a 69-53 win over Fresno State on the road.
Boise State also ranks among the better teams in the conference at getting to the free-throw line—2nd at 419 attempts this season behind just Nevada with 448. That’s a big contrast to New Mexico, which entered the previous matchup vs SDSU near the bottom of the league in attempts before earning 36 against SDSU—15 above their per game average.
If the Aztecs allow dribble penetration and foul at a high rate again, they risk repeating the same formula that led to defeat at The Pit.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance
For San Diego State, the path to victory is clear but demanding. It starts with defensive rebounding and limiting second-chance points. It requires smarter late-game decision-making and better shot selection, particularly leveraging high-efficiency corner threes. And it demands poise on the road, where the Aztecs have dropped multiple winnable games this season, including three at elevation.
With only two regular-season games remaining and a three-team race atop the Mountain West standings, the stakes could not be higher. The Aztecs still control their ability to stay in contention, and have all but locked in a top-4 seed in the Mountain West tournament avoiding the dreaded Wednesday matchup. But another slip would indicate a truly alarming situation down the stretch.
Tuesday night in Boise will reveal whether this team can correct its flaws in time—or whether inconsistency will define its March.
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