College football has changed. NIL, contracts, portal bidding wars — the transactional nature of the sport is undeniable.
But inside the football offices at San Diego State, General Manager Caleb Davis isn’t chasing headlines. He’s chasing stable metrics.
“I think everything is more about how you interpret the data to help you make better sound decisions,” Davis explained. The SDSU GM joined Sons of Montezuma Podcast for a full interview soon to be released. “It’s not just about total sacks or tackles. It’s about what actually correlates to year-to-year success.”
In an era where fans celebrate six-sack stat lines, SDSU is digging deeper. Davis specifically referenced “stable versus unstable metrics” — the advanced indicators that project future performance rather than simply reflect past production.
Take pass rush win rate.
Instead of focusing solely on sack totals, SDSU evaluates how often a defender beats his one-on-one block and disrupts the quarterback. Davis highlighted Oregon State transfer Kai Wallin, whose 13.7% pass rush win rate nearly mirrored former Aztec standout Trey White’s 13.8% mark — despite vastly different snap counts.
Those are the numbers that matter in the Aztecs’ war room.
“We try to find those underlying metrics that correlate to all-conference success,” Davis said. “Because we’re not going to be able to pay the money for every Trey White out of the portal. So how do we reinvent him in different ways?”
The result? A portal class that blends more than 15,000 career snaps of experience with high-upside talent — and ranked second in the Pac-12.
It’s not just about replacing production. It’s about replicating impact efficiently.
“There’s definitely a piece of that, how do you work smarter than others knowing that our financial resources might not be the same?” Davis said.
This approach is especially critical entering the Pac-12 era. As competition intensifies, SDSU’s ability to identify undervalued traits — explosiveness rates, win percentages, snap efficiency — could become its separator.
And it’s not just about numbers on a spreadsheet. Davis emphasized that analytics supplement relationships, not replace them.
“At its core, college football is about relationships,” he said. “That’s more important now than it was five years ago.”
As spring camp opens March 22, fans may see new faces flying off the edge or breaking open in the secondary. Behind those additions is a front office that’s playing chess while others play checkers.
In 2026, the Aztecs aren’t just building a roster.
They’re engineering one.
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