How SDSU Can Still Win the Mountain West Season Title Through a Wild Tie-breaker

Justin Golden
Conbributing Writer

All right, the most absolute chaos scenario for the Mountain West might be just about ready to happen. In SDSU’s final year as a member, could it be any other way. So we all just watched Colorado State beat New Mexico at the pit to survive a comeback by the Lobos that would’ve completely sunk the Aztecs chances. But not so fast. The corn salsa eaters did us a solid. I always knew I liked corn in my salsa (wink-wink).

With the final weekend of the regular season approaching, the race for the Mountain West Conference men’s basketball championship has turned into one of the most complicated tiebreaker scenarios the league has seen in years.

For San Diego State Aztecs men’s basketball, the path to at least a share of the regular-season title is still alive, but it depends on several results around the conference.

What the Aztecs Need to do

The Aztecs’ first piece of business is straightforward: they must defeat UNLV Runnin’ Rebels men’s basketball in their regular-season finale. A San Diego State win keeps them in contention for the top spot and opens the door for a potential three-team tie atop the standings.

The Help SDSU Needs

The second key game takes place in Logan, where Utah State hosts New Mexico. If Utah State wins that matchup the Aggies are crowned regular season champions and will have the #1 seed in the tournament. Meanwhile San Diego State beats UNLV, the Aztecs would finish 2nd in the standings and earn the #2 seed in the MW Tournament.

If Utah State is upset by New Mexico, in that situation San Diego State, Utah State, and New Mexico could finish the regular season tied for first place in conference play.

When teams tie for first in the Mountain West standings, the conference uses a step-by-step tiebreaking procedure to determine tournament seeding and the official regular-season champion.

Tiebreaker of Dreams

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record among the tied teams. In this potential three-way tie, all three teams would be even against each other, as San Diego State split its two games with both Utah State and New Mexico, and the Aggies and Lobos would also split their season series.

Because the head-to-head results would not break the tie, the conference’s next step is to compare records against the highest-placed teams in the standings outside the tie. That is where the race becomes complicated.

A large cluster of teams—GCU, Boise State, Colorado State, Nevada, and UNLV—have been tightly grouped just behind the leaders in the standings. Grand Canyon however is a full game ahead of the others. As it currently stands, Utah State split with GCU, New Mexico swept the Antelopes—SDSU was swept this season 0-2. This would essentially wipe the Aztecs out of the #1 spot.

Utah State and New Mexico would then take the next level of criteria to determine who among them gets the top seed. In this scenario, if New Mexico can defeat Utah State and GCU defeats Fresno State, the Lobos would earn the #1 seed in the tiebreaker at the top. So make that two games SDSU needs to go their way in order to get into these tiebreaker scenarios: New Mexico to beat Utah State and Fresno State to beat GCU.

If Fresno State pulls off the upset at GCU, depending on how the final games play out, the league could also see a multi-team tie for fourth place.

In that scenario, the Mountain West treats the tied group as a collective position when evaluating records against them. San Diego State and Utah State would likely end up with nearly identical results against that group, which could push the tiebreaking process even further down the list of criteria.

If the records against the next-highest group are still equal, the conference continues down its procedure, comparing records against the next teams in the standings until a difference appears. In extremely rare cases where teams remain tied through all head-to-head and standings comparisons, the Mountain West ultimately uses NCAA NET rankings to determine tournament seeding.

The situation could shift quickly and San Diego State’s record against the remaining teams could give the Aztecs the edge in the championship tiebreaker.

While the scenarios are complex, the path for San Diego State remains simple at the start: win its final game and hope the rest of the Mountain West standings create the right combination of results. If the pieces fall into place, the Aztecs could still end the regular season with a share of the conference title and potentially secure the top seed in the Mountain West Tournament.

Okay we’ve got to take a seat and have a drink of water. The room is a little dizzy after going through all of this. Bottom line, will any of this matter? With so much shakeup in momentum happening in the conference right now the final conference tournament for SDSU at the Thomas & Mack will certainly have the arena going wild.

To win 3 games in a row in order to continue their sixth straight appearance, for our Aztecs it might be the most wild ask of it all.