The Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview: Complete Profiles and Outlook

Teddy Scott (Aztec_Republic)
Contributing Writer

With the college basketball regular season in the rearview, the Mountain West Conference Tournament is upon us. As San Diego State wraps up its final season in the Mountain West, the Aztecs find themselves in perhaps their biggest conference tournament in the past few seasons.

As they very much need to run the table to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Aztecs are 1 loss away from not qualifying for the Tournament for just the second time in the Brian Dutcher era (not including the 2019-20 squad). With that being said, I will now present a profile on all 12 Mountain West Teams as they head into the Conference Tournament.

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#1 Seed: Utah State Aggies (25-6, Conf: 15-5, NET: 29)

The top seed in the bracket is the Mountain West Regular Season Champion, Utah State Aggies. However, they were far from a dominant conference champion as it took until the last week of the season to clinch the title. Utah State is the only team in the Mountain West that is certain to make the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in Vegas this week. Someone will likely need to beat them for the Mountain West to be a two-bid league this season. The Aztecs split with them this season, most recently blowing them out at Viejas.

Utah State had the top scoring offense in the conference, averaging 83 points per game, good enough for 39th Nationally. They are slightly over 50% from the field (also best in MW), where they rank 15th overall. They also shoot the three pretty well at 36.3% (ranked 52nd). On the defensive end, they do enough to win games but are not outstanding. As they hold their opponents to 71.1 points and to 42.5% shooting (81st). They also force 14 turnovers a game (34th). The areas where they can really be beaten are in rebounding and when they are sent to the free-throw line. The Aggies are ranked 267th in defensive rebounding and 234th in total rebounds. As for free throws, they are shooting just 70.9%, which is also 234th.

The Aggies cleaned up with the awards this season. Mason Falslev was named Mountain West Player of the Year. He has been a do-it-all guy for Utah State, averaging 15.9 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 2.9 Ast, and 1.9 Stl. Collins is the team’s leading scorer at 17.6 per game, and he was named to the All-Conference Second Team. Karsen Templin won 6th Man of the Year, most likely thanks to the Aztecs’ BJ Davis making too many starts. Head Coach Jerrod Calhoun won Coach of the Year, but I do not think he deserved it this year.

Their first matchup of the tournament will be the winner of the 8/9 game between UNLV (who beat them twice) and Wyoming. With Utah State on the opposite side of the bracket, the Aztecs could only face them in the Championship Game.

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#2 Seed: San Diego State Aztecs (20-10, Conf: 14-6, NET: 47)

The second seed in the tournament is our very own San Diego State Aztecs, who finished a game back from a share of the regular-season conference title. This season’s squad is unlike any that I remember, in some good ways and many bad ways. As I mentioned in the opening, the Aztecs will need to win the Mountain West Tournament to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Scoring-wise, these guys average 79.4 (Ranked 99th nationally), which makes this the highest-scoring Aztecs team in the Fisher/Dutcher era. There were even points in the season where the Aztecs averaged over 80 points per game for the first time since the 1984-85 team. They are shooting 47.5% (45th) from the field and 35.7% (86th) from beyond the arc, but that is significantly lower than what they were shooting earlier in the season. They have been just okay from the free-throw line, shooting 74.8% (90th).

Conversely, these Aztecs allow 71.5 per game (112th), which is their worst since Fisher’s first season in 1999-00 and their first time allowing over 70 a game since 2004-05. This high opponent scoring stems most notably from an uncharacteristically bad three-point defense. Allowing other teams to shoot 33.4% behind the arc, which comes out to 161st. But the Aztecs’ defense inside the arc has still been quite good, holding opponents to 40.2% shooting from the field, which is best in the Mountain West, and 18th in the Country while they force 14.6 turnovers per game (23rd), which is also a conference best. This team has also been strangely bad at rebounding, as they have been missing their usual San Diego State physicality, despite typically having the size advantage.

The Aztecs do not lack for roster talent or depth as their bench was a significant weapon before injuries challenged that depth, and even with everyone now healthy, there has been a lack of roster synergy at points this season and especially in the last 6 games, when they have been 2-4, with only one of those wins in convincing fashion. BJ Davis has had a breakout season (10.9 Pts, 3 Reb, 2.2 Ast, 1 Stl) and is coming off a career night where he dropped 30. Reese Dixon-Waters (13.2 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 1.3 Ast) and Miles Byrd (10.6 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 2.7 Ast, 1.9 Stl, 1.2 Blk) need to dig deep and start taking charge as team leaders, especially Byrd, who has not looked like an NBA prospect this season. Byrd took home Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, 3rd Team All-Conference, and All-Defense honors. RDW was named 2nd Team All-Conference. Davis was an All-Conference Honorable mention and made too many starts to qualify for 6th Man of the Year.

This team will only go as far as the big three will take them, but the Aztecs historically have done well in Vegas, and fans travel well. Their first game will likely come against 7 Seeded Colorado State, whom the Aztecs split with, losing the road matchup a couple of weeks ago. If a surprise upset occurs, the Aztecs will face 10 seed Fresno State, who they boat-raced in their lone meeting this season.

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#3 Seed: New Mexico Lobos (22-9, Conf: 13-7, NET: 45)

The number three seed is the New Mexico Lobos. The Lobos, like the Aztecs, fell just short of a share regular-season title, losing twice in the final week, to solidify Utah State as Champions. These guys are really the only Mountain West team on the bubble for an at-large berth. Still, even that opportunity may have passed after losing to Colorado State at home last week and Utah State twice this season.

New Mexico is very good defensively but only okay offensively. On defense, they allow 70.8 (94th). They limit shooting overall and almost completely shut it down outside the arc, as opponents shoot 41.9% (56th) from the field and hold opponents to just 29.9% from three, which is the best in the MW and good for 17th Nationally. They score 80.7 per game (Ranked 74th). From the field, they are an unremarkable 46% (136th), but they are quite good from range shooting 36.2% (56th). They tend to draw a lot of fouls, but they are not very good at the line, shooting 73.3% (156th). A bizarre stat for them is in rebounding. The Lobos are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country (222nd), but are one of the better defensive rebounding teams (85th)

Some Lobos of note are Jake Hall, who scores 16.3 per game and leads the Mountain West in three-point shooting (44.4%), and Croatian big man Tomislav Bujlan, who averages 12.2 and a conference-leading 10.3 rebounds. Hall was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year and First Team All-Conference, while Bujlan took home Second Team honors. I think Head Coach Eric Olen should have been the MW Coach of the Year, getting 3rd place in his first season at New Mexico.

The Lobos are a team that definitely has a chance to take home a trophy this tournament. They have the team to do it, and their fans travel well to Vegas. Their first opponent in the tournament will most likely be the 6th seed, Boise State, barring a massive upset by San Jose State. Boise is a tough matchup for the Lobos, who lost to them twice. With New Mexico being the 3 seed, the Aztecs could only play them in the Semifinal.

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#4 Seed: Grand Canyon Lopes (20-11, Conf: 13-7, NET: 68)

The fourth seed and last bye belong to the Grand Canyon Lopes. Grand Canyon impressed in their first season in the Mountain West after moving from the WAC. Aztecs fans will be familiar with their style of play, having lost to the twice this season, including being clobbered at home.

Grand Canyon’s calling card is titsdefense. They are 18th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Their 68.2 points against is the best in the conference and 40th overall. Opponents shoot 41.2% (36th) on field goals and 31.8 (72nd) beyond the arc. They are also the best rebounding team in the Mountain West. Offensively, Grand Canyon does not stand out in any area aside from free throws. As a result of drawing 20 fouls a game (21st), shooting 75.9% (54th) on free throws is a viable weapon for their offense. They shoot threes at a horrendous 31.8% clip (307th).

The Lopes have a few good players, but none are better than Jaden Henley, who averages 17.6 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 2.9 Ast, and 1.5 Stl. He was the best player on the floor in both of GCU’s games against the Aztecs, and he was named First Team All-Conference. Makiah Williams (13.6 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 2.4 Ast) took home Second Team All-MW honors, while Nana Owusu-Anane was named All-Defense.

Their first test in Vegas will almost certainly be against Nevada (who plays Air Force in their first round game). Grand Canyon lost to Nevada in their lone matchup. It will be interesting to see how far this defense can take them in their first trip to Vegas. Grand Canyon could only face the Aztecs in the Championship Game.

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#5 Seed: Nevada Wolf Pack (20-11, Conf: 12-8, NET: 73)

The fifth seed and first, non-bye team, is the Nevada Wolf Pack. They feel like a bit of a make-or-break team because this could be it for head coach Steve Alford if they do not go on a run this tournament. 

Nevada scores 75.9 (176th) and allows 71.9 (119th). They are a strange team to figure out if they are good or not because they really only do two things well. Shoot threes and get to the free-throw line. They shoot 36.9% on threes (34th), and they top 10 in drawing fouls, the most in the MW, and shoot 75.1% (75th) at the line. In most other categories, they are below average. Weirdly, they do not take very many shots at all. They are 286th in shot attempts and 329th in three-point attempts, despite shooting them well.

A couple of Nevada players of note are Corey Camper Jr. (17.1 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 2.4 Ast, 1.3 Stl) and Elijah Price (13.2 Pts, 8.6 Reb, 1.0 Ast, 1.2 Stl, 1.7 Blk). Camper was named First Team All-Conference, while Price made Second Team and All-Defense.

Their first tournament game is against Air Force in what should be the easiest win for any team in the Conference Tournament. Really, the game they are preparing for is the next one against the aforementioned Grand Canyon. They could not face the Aztecs until the Championship Game.

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#6 Seed: Boise State Broncos (20-11, Conf: 12-8, NET: 57)

The sixth seed is the Boise State Broncos. They are a team that I think is better than their seed. 

Assuming they handle business against San Jose State, I think they will give New Mexico problems in their quarterfinals matchup.

Boise State scores 78.3 (118th) points per game and allows 73.1 (156th). Neither are impressive-looking marks, and that is kind of a running theme with many of their team numbers. The Broncos are good at drawing fouls (30th) and excel at the line, as their 78.6 free-throw percentage is best in the Mountain West and 9th nationally. Even though they are not a great rebounding team, their +7.5 rebounding margin is best in the conference and 9th nationally.

A major Bronco of note is their Center, Drew Fielder. He averages 14.8 and 5.7 Reb, has a conference best 55% shooting, which earned him Second Team All-Conference honors. 

Boise State’s numbers do not jump off the page, but they proved to be a tough matchup for the Aztecs, pushing the game to double OT, in the Aztecs’ win and embarrassing the Aztecs last Tuesday.

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#7 Seed: Colorado State Rams (20-11, Conf: 11-9, NET: 87)

The seventh seed is the Colorado State Rams. As the seven seed, they position themselves as the Aztecs’ most likely first opponent of the Mountain West Tournament. But they need to avoid the Fresno  State trap game first.

The Rams average 76.8 (155) and allow 71.4 (109), each game. The name of the game for Colorado State is three-point shooting. Their 39.4% from deep is by far the best in the Mountain West and ranks them 8th overall. As a result of that outstanding three-point shooting, their overall shooting is great as well, at 49.8% (16th). They are a good free-throw shooting team as well. What they do not do well is rebounding (320th), and they are not a good defensive team. Opponents shoot 45.3% (245th) overall and 34.4% (226th) on threes. They also commit more turnovers than they force.

The Rams have two guys who average 12 points per game: Guard Brandon Rechsteiner and Forward Kyle Jorgensen. The latter is a guy who shoots over 55% from the field. But the player who received Third Team All-Conference honors is Jevin Muniz, who led the Mountain West in assists at 4.9 per game.

While the Aztecs struggle with defending three-point shooters, I still think this is a favorable matchup for the Aztecs in comparison to playing Boise State or UNLV in their first tournament game. I think the Aztces have the ability to capitalize against Colorado State’s defense, and rebounding might not be an issue because the Rams are not good at it, either.

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#8 Seed: UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (16-15, Conf: 11-9, NET 111)

The eight seed is the host UNLV Rebels. UNLV is a team that I think is better than their record and NET. Weirdly enough, they lead the Mountain West with four Quad 1 wins, including two wins over Utah State, who they will play if they beat Wyoming in their first-round game. But they also have seven Quad 3 and 4 losses. They are definitely the chaos factor of this tournament. Especially with the venue being their home arena.

They average a very good 80.2 (82nd) offensively and give up a very high 78.8 (306th) per game. They shoot  47.3% (62nd) from the field, and they take a lot of free throws, but they miss a lot of them while shooting 69.3% (280th). Their defense is just not good, as other teams shoot 45.8% (266th) and are even better from range, 34.8% (310th). And they have a real problem with fouling, as they commit an average of 21.5 fouls (361st).

The main reason UNLV has had so many good wins is because of the Mountain West’s leading scorer, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who averages 21 Pts to go along with 3.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists. He was named First Team All-Mountain West. The Rebels also have Tyrin Jones, who leads the MW with 2 blocks per game and was named to the All-Defensive team.

I am relieved that Colorado State ended up as the 7 Seed, and the Aztecs will not play UNLV in back-to-back games after barely surviving at home on Friday Night against them, especially because I doubt the Aztecs would have figured out a solution for Gibbs-Lawhorn in less than a week.

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#9 Seed: Wyoming Cowboys (18-13, Conf: 9-11, NET: 98)

The ninth seed is the Wyoming Cowboys. This is the point in the seeding/standings where the teams will be lucky to win a game in the MW Tournament. Wyoming does have the best chances to win a game in the 9 Seed through 12 Seed group, but Wyoming has not found much success in their games outside of Laramie, where they do not have the elevation advantage away from home.

Offensively, the Cowboys average 77.3 points, and on defense, they allow 73 points per game. Couincidentally they rank 148th in both categories. Wyoming is below average in every statistical category except offensive rebounding, where they randomly lead the Mountain West with 11.8 (96th). Leand Walker and Nair Meyer are their best players, averaging 13.8 and 12.7, respectively. Like UNLV, Wyoming also has a fouling problem, averaging 20.8 fouls (358th). So this 8/9 game between the two is going to be unwatchable with all the fouls that are going to occur.

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#10 Seed Fresno State Bulldogs (13-18, Conf: 7-13, NET: 149)

The tenth seed is the Fresno State Bulldogs. They are the team that is hoping to upset Colorado State and face San Diego State in the Quarterfinals. But that is going to bea pretty tall task as Fresno has not won a game above Quad 3 this season. However, one of those Quad 3 wins was against Colorado State.

Fresno State is a team that averages basically the same number of points as they give up. 73.2 points for (254th) and 73 (151st). The only stat they excel in is three-point defense. Opponents shoot just 30.1 (21st). They are not good in any other categories, but they are not downright horrendous in any, either. The Bulldogs have two MW statistical leaders. The first is Jake Heidbreder, who is the conference’s best free-throw shooter at 89.6%, and he leads in minutes. He is a Third Team All-Conference player. The second guy is Zaon Collins, who leads in steals with 2 per game but is surprisingly not All-Defense.

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#11 Seed: San Jose State Spartans (8-23, Conf: 3-17, NET: 256)

The eleven seed is the San Jose State Spartans. They are the penultimate team in this article, which means they are VERY bad. Their only saving grace is that the Air Force is in this conference, or they would have been 1-17 in conference play. I still do not understand how Nevada lost to this team.

The fact that they are one of the only two MW teams to average more points against (78.2, 298th) than points for (71.5, 282) should tell you all you need to know about this team. They do shoot the three pretty well (35.8%, 79th), but that is about it. They are ranked in the 200’s to 300’s in nearly every team stat other than three-point shooting. But just because the team is bad, does not mean they do not have any good players. Case-in-point: Colby Garland. He is averaging 20.3 Pts and 4.6 Asts. He is a Second Team All- MW guy. Boise State should have a cakewalk against these guys.

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#12 Seed: Air Force Falcons (3-28, Conf: 0-20, NET: 349)

What really need the be said about this team? They did not win a conference game. In fact, they have not won a game at all since November 23rd. They fired their coach mid-season over the mistreatment of cadets. They are nowhere near as good as their women’s team, who stunned our Aztec women.

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With that being said, I am looking forward to this year’s Mountain West Tournament because it feels very unpredictable, as it feels like 7 or 8 teams have a chance to take home the trophy by the end of this week. Here’s to hoping that team is our Aztecs!

Author’s Notes: All of the stats are as of Monday, March 9th, and most of them came from these three sites: Bracketologists.com, Sports Reference, and KenPom. And here is a link to the full statsheet that I made, but did not include everything from. I originally started writing this March 9th, and completed it late last night, with the intention of publishing this morning, but with the reveal of the Mountain West awards, I decided to make some changes to highlight award winners and players that made the All-Mountain West teams and All-Defensive Team.