This Saturday at 7:30 pm PT, the Aztecs travel up the 15 freeway to Las Vegas to take on a very good UNLV team. The game will be on CBS Sports Network and local radio Sports 760.
The Aztecs have lost three in a row in Mountain West play—two of those games (at home) being very winnable if it weren’t for a plethora of undisciplined mistakes.
Against Washington State Danny O’Neil threw a costly 4th quarter interception when the Aztecs were in the red zone. That play furthered an eventual Cougars Touchdown and led to the Aztecs hopes of an upset being crushed.
Against New Mexico, on both long runs by Lobos RB Eli Sanders, the Aztecs defensive end went under the pulling the guard instead of attacking him, keeping outside contain. The end result, Sanders bounced both runs for massive TD runs to put the Aztecs in a deep hole they never recovered from.
The Aztecs can not make these mistakes this week in Las Vegas, as the UNLV offense is much more potent that the Lobos.
It truly is a do or die scenario for the 2024 Aztecs under first year head coach Sean Lewis—when it comes to making a bowl game. Not making a bowl game for SDSU, would be the first time in consecutive years of missing post season play prior to the Rocky Long era.
Before I go over my three keys to Saturdays game, I am going to give a little insight into the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels.
UNLV is 7-2 with two very close losses—both I believe they should have won. This Rebels team will be the second toughest team the Aztecs play all year.
UNLV has an offense that averages 43.6 points per game, 177.6 passing yards per game, and 248.7 rushing yards per game. The only thing the Runnin’ Rebels struggle with offensively is converting on third downs, which they do only 37.9% of the time.
They run the ball 63% of the time and pass only 37% of the time. Only seven other teams in FBS run the ball more than the Rebels, so one of my keys might include something about stopping the run.
Now for the defense, which is one of the best teams in the country at turning its opposition over, averaging roughly 2 takeaways per game with a turnover margin of 12 on the season.
UNLV is also one of the least penalized teams in all of college football, which for a team like the Aztecs is going to cause them fits.
Now for my three keys to an Aztec upset victory.
- Win/Tie the Turnover Margin:
As I mentioned above the Rebels are elite at turning the opposition over and taking care of the football, part of that is due to its run-run-run offensive scheme, but also due to its organized chaotic defense that Aztec fans are very familiar with.
The RBs of the Rebels do not fumble the football and Hajj-Malik Williams has only thrown three interceptions with no fumbles lost for the potent Rebel offense.
The Aztec defense must prioritize sending multiple blitz packages and make sure the safeties and cornerbacks play the deep routes. UNLV will constantly take shots down the field to try and catch the defense off guard after they have ran the ball multiple times in a row.
The UNLV offense does give up a sack every ten plays they throw the football, so getting pressure on Williams is gonna be huge to forcing turnovers and getting them off the field on third down. Keep an eye on a big day for Trey White to add to his sack total in a fantastic season thus far.
2. Pull out all the stops:
Coach Sean Lewis is going to have to call a similar offensive game to the one he called against Washington State. All the trick plays in the book to take advantage this outstanding Rebel defense and somehow keep them off guard should be on the table.
On top of the play calling QB Danny O’Neil is going to have to throw for big yards. While throwing over 300 yards would be exceptional, it’s quality passes over quantity that is needed to pull off this upset. O’Neil must deliver consistent chain moving plays and chunk yards, but also make sure to protect the football and not throw any costly interceptions.
Additionally, Marquez Cooper needs just 35 yards to reach the 1,000 yard mark on the season, becoming the first SDSU RB since Greg Bell in the 2021 season. Those may be tough yards to come by for the Aztecs, but once that mark is hopefully met it will be interesting to see how much more Sean Lewis plays into the rushing attack for this matchup’s gameplan.
The Rebels have an amazing run defense, but can be beat through the air as they have been giving up 277 yards per contest.
3. Hold the Rebels under 180 yards rushing:
Defensive coordinator Eric Schmidt must have his unit ready to deliver a powerful defensive effort & scheme. As mentioned above, whoever wins the rushing yards total in these matchups is going to win the game. UNLV runs the ball twice as much as they pass. With all that action keep an eye on the opposition’s DBs as they tend to creep up into the box in order to help stifle the run game.
Pick your poison with that however as when the Rebels do pass, they go for deep shots down the field taking advantage of the defense. UNLV ranks 8th in the country in rush play% at 63.46%, 21st in yards per rush at 5.3, 16th in rushes per game at 41.3 rushes per game, and 10th in rush yards per game at 216.8 yards.
The Rebels tend to run a lot of two back sets with the runners on either side of QB Williams set up in the pistol formation, and even sets with both RBs next to each other on either side of Williams.
It gives the defense a very complex look and they can run a multitude of plays out of it, which is what has given them one of the strongest and most dangerous rushing attacks in the nation.
In order to flip the odds at the black jack table, the Aztecs are going to have to hold the Rebels underneath its average of 216.8 yards per game and should set a goal to around 180 rushing yards allowed to the Rebels.
Game Prediction
San Diego State 17
UNLV 31
I simply think the potent offense and dangerous defense of the Rebels is going to be too much for an undisciplined Aztec team. I still have faith in Sean Lewis to turn this program around, but its going to take another offseason and establishing the culture he wants to build to take this program back to where Aztec fans were used to for so long.
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