The powerhouse 7-1 Aztecs keep on winning. After a fierce 24-7 homecoming victory over Wyoming, SDSU travels to Honolulu to take on Hawai’i.
WEEK 11: Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors vs. San Diego State Aztecs
WHEN: Saturday, November 8th, 2025, 8:00 PM PST | 11:00 PM EST | 6:00 PM HST
WHERE: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex; Honolulu, HI (16,000)
TV: Locally San Diego ABC Channel 10
Spectrum Sports (avail. to Spectrum & Hawaiian Telecom customers w/o having to buy pay-per-view)
STREAM: Mountain West Network (www.themw.com)
SERIES RECORD: SDSU leads the series 26-11-2. SDSU last won 27-24 (Oct. 5, 2024)
ODDS: San Diego State -7
Honolulu, HI– The SDSU Aztecs (7-1, 4-0 MW) travel to the island of Oahu to play the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (6-3, 3-2 MW) for what is likely their final match as Mountain West conference mates. Next season the Aztecs enter the PAC-12, and the Warriors become bona fide full Mountain West members, after years of football-only inclusion.
Both the white-hot Aztecs and explosive Rainbow Warriors have achieved bowl eligibility. Watch for fireworks when SDSU’s incredible defense takes on Hawai’i’s high flying offense.
A win at Hawai’i PLUS just one more win against any of SDSU’s three remaining foes (Boise State, San Jose State, New Mexico) secures SDSU’s place in the Mountain West championship game. Sean Lewis’s Aztecs will be highly motivated to win on Saturday.
Now, let’s take a closer look at Hawai’i.
GET TO KNOW THE 2025 RAINBOW WARRIORS
Head coach Timmy Chang has led the Rainbow Warriors since January 2022. His record has been shaky over previous years, but this season he has driven a successful campaign, invigorating the ‘Bows and making fans and alumni proud. Chang is all about offense, and Hawai’i has evolved into an offensive dynamo. He has learned from past misfortune and now brings the mojo to keep the Warriors contending for future titles.
Last week, the Warriors were unexpectedly beaten 45-38 by the SJSU Spartans. Hawai’i rushed for 95 yards on 25 carries (3.8 ypc) and ended the game with 496 yards total on 72 plays (6.9 ypp). The Warriors passing defense allowed 458 yards total on 20 of 40 (50%) passing and 28 Spartan carries for 172 yards (6.1 ypc).
In light of the loss, Hawai’i brings an explosive passing offense complements of QB1 Micah Alejado, an elite arm with 2,124 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and a 65.9% completion rate this season. He most often connects with wide receiver Jackson Harris, who has 601 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns on the year.
Offensively, the Warriors average 410 ypg (52nd in FBS), passing an elite 307.6 ypg (6th), but with near worst-in-class rushing 102.4 ypg (127th). The Warriors average 29.7 ppg (60th). Hawai’i’s red-zone efficiency is an elite 97% (5th). Solid passing and dismal rushing makes ‘Bows offense largely one-dimensional.
On defense, Hawai’i allows 358 ypg (60th), 225.4 passing ypg (74th), 132.6 rushing ypg (48th); and allows 25.7 ppg (80th). Defense has many shortcomings, especially in points allowed against the pass. All of this can be exploited by SDSU’s balanced attack. The Warriors’ turnover margin is -7 and the Aztecs are strong with takeaways.
Hawai’i has given up a total of 1,190 rush yards and 14 touchdowns (132.2 ypg) against the ground game so far this season. They have conceded 11 passing touchdowns and 225.4 yards/game (74th). This season, they’ve allowed 231 pts. Their defense has totaled 3 fumbles and 5 picks on the year.
THE MOUNTAIN WEST LEADING AZTECS
/**/The San Diego State Aztecs enter this matchup 7-1 for this season. Aside from a 36-13 road loss at Washington State, the Aztecs have bested Stony Brook, California, Northern Illinois, Colorado State, Nevada, Fresno State and Wyoming, including three shutouts.
In their last match, the Aztecs waged a 24-7 victory over the Wyoming Cowboys on Homecoming night. In the game, on 62 plays, SDSU amassed 390 yards, rushing 40 times for 196 yards (4.9 ypc). Defensively, they yielded just 89 yds on 35 carries (2.5 ypc). The Aztecs allowed 13 pass completions on 27 attempts for 96 yards (48.1%).
On the year, the Aztecs have racked up 2,937 total yards. When it comes to scoring, San Diego State has 8 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the ball 6 times.
Offensively the Aztecs are averaging 28.9 points and 367.1 ypg ( 84th in FBS); with rushing at 185.3 ypg (36th) and passing 181.9 ypg (112th). QB1 Jayden Denegal leads with 1,418 passing yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 62.9 % completion rate. Running back Lucky Sutton has 815 rushing yards on 153 carries (5.3 ypc) and 8 rushing TDs.
The Aztecs currently rank 2nd in FBS in terms of overall defense, allowing just 10.0 ppg. They hold opponents to an average 2.7 ypc and just 88.5 yards on the ground per game this year. They have given up 708 yards on the ground through 8 games, and 1,262 passing yards. They are allowing 157.8 ypg through the air, allowing a completion percentage of 50.6%. This season, they are surrendering 246.3 yards per outing putting them at 6th in the nation. They have yielded 7 passing touchdowns and just two 2 rushing touchdowns.
KEYS TO A SAN DIEGO STATE VICTORY
/**/1. Secondary Sauce
Hawai’i averages 307.6 passing yards per game, which is 6th in the nation. This is largely due to their run game being an appalling 127th in the nation. SDSU’s secondary will need to cover the wide receivers and any other potential ball recipients like barbecue sauce on a rib, to deny vital Warrior completions, and maximize all interception opportunities. That ball will be in the air, so SDSU must work to exploit these predictable plays.
2. Red Zone Repellant
When Hawai’i reaches the red zone (20 yards before the end zone) they score 97% of the time. If Aztecs defense prevents the ‘Bows from reaching the red zone, their chances of making touchdowns drops substantially. Comically straightforward as it is: keep Hawai’i out of that red zone (like the 20-yard line was the end zone) and they will struggle to score.
3. Balanced Offensive (Hawaiian) Punch
SDSU’s balanced attack will be problematic for Hawai’i. The Warriors do struggle to stop the run, so Sutton and co. will have a chance to post prolific yardage. And, with the ‘Bows pass coverage struggles, Denegal should regularly connect with Jordan Napier and other receivers effectively. A balanced ground game will also help the Aztecs control the clock. If the Aztecs guard the ball while chewing up precious clock time, the upper hand is theirs.
PREDICTION
This match comes down to one factor: will SDSU’s defense contain Hawai’i’s air offensive?
The Rainbow Warriors may surprise the Aztecs by gaining yardage through planned long pass plays, which must in turn cause the elite Aztec defense to turn up the heat and hurry Alejado. Interceptions and red zone denial will place SDSU in squarely in control.
SDSU will wage victory in the end, but Hawai’i will make this a thrilling match, possibly staying within one possession throughout most of the game.
FINAL SCORE
San Diego State 28, Hawai’i 21
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