San Diego State vs. San Jose State: Preview, How To Watch, Keys & Prediction

The 8-2 Aztecs defeated Boise State in the season’s most anticipated match. Now, only San Jose State stands between SDSU and the Mountain West Championship.

---

San Diego, CA– The San Diego State Aztecs (8-2, 5-1 MW) host the visiting San Jose State Spartans (3-7, 2-4 MW) for one final match as Mountain West conference mates. Next year the Aztecs move to the PAC-12, but the Spartans stay in the re-tooled Mountain West where they could potentially evolve into a regular conference leader.

The Spartans, who have struggled mightily this year, are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack. The Aztecs, on the other hand, are in sole possession of first place and remain just one win away from securing their place in the Mountain West Championship.

Now, let’s take a closer look at San Jose State.

GET TO KNOW THE 2025 SPARTANS

Spartans head coach Ken Niumatalolo joined SJSU in January of 2024. In his first season, he led the Spartans to an impressive 7-6 record including wins over Stanford and Oregon State, and secured a trip to the Hawai‘i Bowl. Before SJSU, Niumatalolo coached Navy where he won a program-best 109 games; led Navy to 10 bowl games over 15 seasons and was a three-time AAC Coach of the Year, among many other accolades.

Niumatalolo, a La‘ie, Hawai‘i native played quarterback for Hawai‘i from 1987-89 and was part of their first bowl team in 1989. After he graduated, he kicked off his coaching career on Paul Johnson’s staff at Hawai‘i as a coaching assistant.

The 2025 season has not come together well for the Spartans. Last week, they were routed by last-place Nevada 55-10. The loss dashed any possibility of the Spartans achieving 2025 bowl eligibility. San Jose State trailed 31-0 at the half but managed 10 points in the second half to prevent a shutout. The Spartans were out-gained 413-270 yards, went 4 for 13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle 5-0 against the Pack.

QB1 Walker Eget went 11-23 for 74 yards and three interceptions, while running back Steve Chavez-Soto rushed eight times for 47 yards (5.9 ypc). Kyri Shoels led receiving with three catches for 47 yards(15.7 ypr). SJSU defense managed zero sacks and four tackles for loss in the game. 

/**/

Prior to Nevada, San Jose State lost to Air Force 26-16 but managed to beat Hawai’i 45-38 the week before.

The Spartans are scoring 24.0 points per game with 313.8 passing yards and 119.4 rushing yards, while they allow 32.4 points per game this season.

On the season, Eget leads San Jose State with 3015 yards and 17 scores on 228 completions. He has thrown eight interceptions. Chavez-Soto is the leading running back with 347 yards and seven scores on 64 carries, although Lamar Radcliffe is right behind him with 340 yards and one touchdown on 66 carries. Danny Scudero leads receiving with 1155 yards and 10 scores on 72 catches. 

Defensively, senior linebacker Jordan Pollard leads the team with 77 tackles. Taniela Latu is second with 60. Cornerback Jalen Bainer has managed three interceptions on the season. Defense is giving up 418.9 yards per game.

TOP-OF-THE-MOUNTAIN AZTECS

The Aztecs took down Boise State 17-7 last week. San Diego State led 14-7 at the half and held Boise State scoreless in the second half. The Aztecs out gained Boise State 294-268 yards; went 3-12 on third downs and tied on turnovers at zero in the game.

Jayden Denegal went 6-10 for 17 yards, while Lucky Sutton rushed 25 times for 150 yards (6 ypc). Mikey Welsh led the receivers with three receptions for 22 yards (7.3 ypr) in the win. The SDSU defense managed zero sacks and four tackles for loss against Boise State.

Unfortunately, lead wide receiver and kick returner Jordan Napier is sidelined out for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury he suffered in the Boise State match. The 6’2″ sophomore leads the Aztecs with 48 receptions for 629 yards (13.1 ypr) and two touchdowns. He also ran back as 75-yard kickoff for touchdown against Nevada earlier this season.

Prior to Boise State, the Aztecs sustained an unexpected 38-6 rout against offensive dynamo Hawai’i in monsoon conditions. Before the loss, they waged a 24-7 victory over the Wyoming Cowboys on SDSU Homecoming night. In the game, on 62 plays, they amassed 390 yards. The Aztecs rushed 40 times for 196 yards (4.9 ypc). Defensively, they allowed just 89 yds on 35 carries (2.5 ypc). The Aztecs allowed 13 pass completions on 27 attempts for 96 yards (48.1%).

The Aztecs have claimed victory in seven of their last eight matches. SDSU scores 25.6 points per game with 160.1 passing yards and 189.7 rushing yards per game. They have allowed just 12.5 points per game this season. Denegal has thrown for 1,564 yards, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Sutton has rushed for a total of 1,048 yards and eight touchdowns on 197 total carries (5.3 ypc).

KEYS TO A SAN DIEGO STATE VICTORY

/**/

1. Desperately Defend

The Spartans will have studied SDSU’s Hawai’i loss. Niumatalolo is a former Hawai’I quarterback, something he has in common with Timmy Chang. The Aztecs must be prepared for a similar attack. Considering the Spartans defeated Hawai’i this season in a high scoring game, the Aztecs must play this match with intensity and desperation against the Spartans’ offense if they want to lock up the 2025 Mountain West Championship.

2. Lucky Jayden Washington

Against the Spartans’ porous defense, the Aztecs should relentlessly run the ball. It isn’t sexy, but for the Aztecs versus SJSU it will be highly effective, and Lucky Sutton, Christian Washington and (occasionally) Jayden Denegal could rack up some serious yardage on the ground, while keeping San Jose State guessing who has the ball.

3. Chew Up The Clock

/**/

Careful control of the clock tilts the odds in SDSU’s favor. By advancing their ground game, the Aztecs can maintain high ball security while moving the chains repeatedly. Taking time to score through gradual field advancement could enable the Aztecs to take valuable minutes off the clock and away from the Spartans.

PREDICTION

Upset warning: despite their losing record the Spartans offense can get hot. Given the Aztecs’ problems against Hawai’i, defense must avoid getting punked again by an explosive Spartans air assault. The Aztecs will have the potential to control the game on both sides of the ball, but they must totally demoralize San Jose State’s offense.

The Aztecs will score far more than they did during their past two games. They will likely run the ball while sampling Denegal’s hot-and-cold passing. The Spartans may score several touchdowns, but the Aztecs will win, likely by two possessions.

FINAL SCORE

San Diego State 34, San Jose State 21