A tough non conference schedule for San Diego State is coming to a close. The 6-3 Aztecs have not met the preseason expectations so far until now.
Blown out by 40 to Michigan at the Players Era tournament, a loss to Baylor that would’ve been a signature out of conference win and a tournament resume killing home loss in double overtime to Troy was not what SDSU hoped for to start the season.
Now comes the opportunity to turn non-conference disappointment into an at-large birth revival and one of the biggest upsets of the 2025-2026 season.
The Hall of Fame Series showdown in Phoenix, AZ against the #1 ranked & undefeated Arizona Wildcats. Tip off is scheduled for Saturday 7:30pm Pacific Time at the Mortgage Matchup Center. The game will be aired on ESPN2.
At first glance it would appear that San Diego State will need to pull off some magic to get the upset over Arizona. The Wildcats obliterated #20 Auburn in Tucson by 29 points. They followed it up with a 21 point clobbering of #12 Alabama on the road in Birmingham, AL.
Noone is giving the Aztecs a chance and they wouldn’t have it any other way. San Diego State has been giant killers the past few years.
In the 2023 NCAA tournament, SDSU took down #1 ranked and #1 overall seed Alabama 71-64.
Last season the Aztecs got a signature out of conference win over NCAA Tournament National Runner-up Houston 73-70 in OT. The win salvaged an at-large bid for the Aztecs after they stumbled into Selection Sunday losing 3 of their last 6 games.
The Aztecs will be double digit underdogs to Arizona and the ESPN Matchup Predictor has their winning odds at less than 7%. So you’re telling me there is a chance?
If San Diego State wants to slay Goliath once again, they are going to have to play a near flawless game. Here are 3 things to know about Arizona.
1. Elite Offense
Arizona is an offensive machine ranking 6th in offense in the KenPom rankings nationally. They have elite talent with 3 former 5 star recruits in senior point guard Jaden Bradley, freshman forward Koa Peat and freshman guard Brayden Burries. They also have 7’2 center Motiejus Krivas who moves well and can do damage on the low block.
The Wildcats combine their talent with exceptional ball movement on offense often swiftly reversing the ball 3 or 4 times in a possession to gain an advantage on the defense or a mismatch they like. They average 19 assists per game.
Arizona has one of the lowest 3 point attempt rates in the country only attempting 17 per game. However, those they take they tend to make shooting 37% as a team.
Where they earn their points is in the paint allowing Krivas to post up deep in the low block or attacking the rim and getting fouled. The Wildcats average a staggering 53.5% of their points in the paint (47 points).
2. Stifling Defense
Arizona has elite defensive metrics as well. They like to apply pressure on the perimeter to take away 3 point shots and place Krivas in the center of the paint to contest any shots at the rim. Opponents are only shooting 32.7% from beyond the 3 point arc and 52% at the rim which ranks in the 2nd percentile defensively nationally in that category. This leaves opponents with a lot of tough 2 point shots that statistically are not good shots to take.
When an opponent misses, the Wildcats clean the boards. They rebound 74.1% of all misses averaging about 5 more defensive rebounds per game than the Aztecs.
Arizona does a great job of turning teams over with steals. Long players with active hands make it difficult to make clean passes. 5 Wildcats have double digits in steals for the season.
3. Tall & Big
Arizona plays an 8 man rotation. Six of the eight are 6’6” or taller. The Aztecs are not only giving up height to Arizona they also give up size. The Wildcats have 5 of their 8 rotational players at 220 lbs or heavier. Compare that to the Aztecs where only Miles Heide, Tae Simmons and Pharaoh Compton weigh that much. When San Diego State takes the floor against Arizona they will look small.
But that shouldn’t determine the Aztecs playing small. The last time SDSU played a #1 ranked team (Alabama in the 2023 NCAA tournament), the Aztecs were the more physical team. Back then Brian Dutcher’s team were the older more experienced team. This time around Goliath actually looks like Goliath.
Bottom Line
Arizona has better athletes who are bigger and taller than San Diego State. In order for the Aztecs to have a chance in this game, they will have to use their quickness to counter size. They will also need to not rely on individual skill and be deliberate in the half court game moving the ball quickly and using smart basketball IQ plays like shotfaking to get Arizona out of position defensively. Rebounding will be a point of emphasis for Coach Dutcher’s squad in this game.
The Aztecs have talent but will it be enough to overcome an extremely gifted Arizona team who play sound fundamental basketball on both ends of the floor? Let’s hope for a Christmas miracle and a monumental upset like the Aztecs pulled off against Houston last season.
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