3 Things to Watch When San Diego State Hosts Fresno State in their Final Mountain West Blackout

As San Diego State prepares to face Fresno State on Saturday night, Aztec Nation should take a moment to understand what kind of challenge the Bulldogs bring to the floor. Fleas, ticks, barking, slobber. And we’re just talking about their fans.

The Bulldogs are coming in to Viejas arena at 7-8 overall and 1-3 in conference play. They’ve won just one game in their last seven and really have no chance at winning the Mountain West regular season if we’re being serious.

The Aztecs on the other hand are standing at 10-4 overall, and 4-0 in conference. They’ve won 7 of their last 8 games and are looking towards winning as many games as possible to win the regular season, as that is what it may take in order to be dancing in March.

Fresno State has sometimes played the role of spoiler to SDSU while in the Mountain West—but not so much in basketball. Yet still, they just naturally bring with themselves a curling of the lip of disdain when it’s time to play that team from the Valley.

And while the programs carry different national profiles, this matchup frequently tightens into a physical, possession-by-possession battle. In other words, it gets ugly.

Technically this may also be the final meeting between the two as member schools of the Mountain West. Fortunately for SDSU, a return trip to the Valley is not on the schedule this season. The only way these two meet again this calendar year is in the Mountain West Conference tournament this March.

Guard Your Balls

The first thing to focus on is Fresno State’s guard play and shot creation. The Bulldogs are typically at their best when their guards can play downhill and create offense late in the shot clock.

Outside shooters like the Clemson transfer Jake Heidbreder make the Bulldogs go. You might be familiar with him from his days as an outside shooter for the Air Force Falcons. The sharp shooter is only knocking down 32% from deep so far, but he does put up 18 points per game to lead the team.

In the Bulldogs most recent victory, a 15-point road win over San Jose State, he only put up 6 points on an abysmal night of shooting. That might sound good for the Aztecs, but the fact is they didn’t Heidbreder to go off that night and they still clobbered a Spartans team at home. The same Spartans that gave the Aztecs a little run.

Could this be a changing of momentum for the Bulldogs? Could they finally be ‘getting’ what their 2nd year coach Vance Walberg is preaching in practice?

They may not overwhelm teams with pace, but they are comfortable grinding out possessions and relying on guards who can make tough shots. If those players find a rhythm early, Fresno State becomes much harder to shake because they can score without relying heavily on set plays.

Tough D in the Paint

Another key area is Fresno State’s defensive toughness in the half court. The Bulldogs often lean into physical on-ball defense, daring opponents to beat them with patience rather than quick strikes.

They will contest passing lanes, force uncomfortable catches, and try to disrupt timing. For SDSU, this means the Bulldogs will likely try to slow the Aztecs down and turn the game into a test of execution rather than athleticism.

We’ve seen this before. SDSU made them pay both times last season. Freshman Forward DeShawn Gory has got some bounce and has been impressive in his first season. It will be a test for him to continue his improvement against a surging Aztecs frontcourt.

We’ll see if Miles Heide can continue his mean streak of finishing at the rim the way he left off against Nevada on Tuesday night. For him the focus is the same—clean up the boards, play tough disciplined positional defense, and get open when his playmakers need him to be around the rim.

For the Aztec bigs Magoon Gwath tends to have big games against the Bulldogs. Sure would be nice to have him looking like his old self this weekend.

All Bark—No Boards

The final thing to watch is Fresno State’s rebounding effort, particularly on the defensive glass. The underlying story of when the Bulldogs and Aztecs meet is who may thrive on extra possessions and physical play around the rim.

While Fresno State might be competitive in this matchup with their freshman 7-foot center Wilson Jaques out of France, his 8 rebounds per game may not be enough to overwhelm the Aztecs mix of Pharoah Compton, Miles Heide, Magoon Gwath, and Jeremiah Oden.

Oden who got the start last game on the road, also hit a few nice shots to earn some confidence. But he will need to get down and dirty to help his teamates clean up in this area of the stat sheet.

Prevent Jacques from momentum-swinging putbacks and ensure strong rebounding can get the Aztecs off and running as they’ve done a great job of this season. The Aztecs are living in the paint lately—shooting less deep three pointers and focusing on points in the paint.

Fresno State will win if:

The Bulldogs can keep the game at their preferred pace and capitalize on mistakes. If their guards consistently convert tough shots late in possessions or if the Bulldogs can string together stops that frustrate SDSU’s offense, they can put real pressure on the Aztecs. Limiting turnovers and making San Diego State earn every basket is a tough but not impossible formula for a Bulldogs upset.

San Diego State will win if:

The Aztecs can impose its physical identity and depth on the dogs. If the Aztecs turn defense into offense with steals and deflections, or if they dominate the rebounding battle to create extra chances, the game can tilt quickly.

When SDSU forces Fresno State to play faster than it wants and controls the paint on both ends, the Aztecs usually are able to separate themselves as the more complete team.

Let’s just hope HC Dutcher can dial up those lineup switches of who is on the floor at the right times.