Metrically Speaking: SDSU’s NET, Ken Pom, Rest of the Season Still Hoping for Selection Sunday

Christopher De La Riva
Contributing Writer

On Tuesday night, the Aztecs suffered a bad home loss to Grand Canyon, 73–63. The rare double-digit defeat at Viejas Arena not only handed the Aztecs its first Mountain West home loss of the season, but also a season sweep for Grand Canyon and dropped SDSU to 1–6 all-time against the Lopes.

It was a frustrating night of missed opportunities in the paint and second-half slippage. Efe Demirel, the seven-foot Turk for GCU, controlled the interior with 14 points and 11 rebounds, recording a double-double that exposed SDSU on both ends of the floor.

Despite Miles Byrd’s 18 points, the Aztecs struggled to generate consistent offense and could not keep pace for much of the second half. Paint touches turned into rushed finishes. Defensive rotations came a step late. Second-chance points piled up.

After the game, head coach Brian Dutcher did not hide from the sting of the moment.

“Well, obviously we’re the last Mountain West team to lose a home game in conference and it was costly,” Dutcher said. “You know, it hurts losing at home, but we’re not the only one that has had that happen to us. So, it’s how we respond to it that’s important.”

That response now becomes the defining storyline of San Diego State’s season.

Dutcher pointed to execution errors more than effort. “We missed some shots in the paint around the basket,” he said. “Some of them were hard, but some of them were pretty close and then we didn’t capitalize and finish.” He also noted breakdowns in ball screen coverage during a pivotal stretch early in the second half, when late switches at the rim led to tip-ins and dump-offs to GCU’s bigs. “They did some good things but we have the coverage for it and we didn’t execute,” he admitted.

The loss hurts in the standings. It also dents the résumé at a critical point in the calendar.

From a metrics standpoint, San Diego State entered the week sitting somewhat comfortably within at-large range for the NCAA Tournament. However, a home loss to a non–Power Five opponent—particularly GCU who came in having lost two of their last three games—results in a noticeable dip in the NCAA’s NET rankings.

While GCU is a quality mid-major program, this qualifies as a Quad 3 loss at home, and those are the kinds of results that can drag down a team’s profile when Selection Sunday arrives.

The Aztecs’ NET ranking, which had hovered in the 40s range for much of conference play, is likely to slide several spots following the defeat. That matters because the selection committee leans heavily on NET for seeding and at-large comparisons. A team sitting inside the top 30 generally feels secure. Drift into the 40s, and conversations become less comfortable. Drop into the 50s, and the margin for error shrinks dramatically.

KenPom tells a similar story, though often with more nuance. San Diego State’s defensive efficiency has remained its backbone, typically ranking among the top 20–25 nationally. Offensively, however, the Aztecs have fluctuated all season, often going welll outside the top 50 in adjusted efficiency.

Tuesday’s 63-point output against a physical GCU defense will not help that number. KenPom tends to reward consistency and punish inefficient stretches, and the Aztecs’ inability to finish around the rim was reflected in their adjusted offensive metrics.

The bigger picture remains steady but no longer comfortable. San Diego State still can profile as an NCAA Tournament team, especially if they can defeat Boise State and New Mexico on the road. But the margin for error in the coming weeks is thin.

Road games at Colorado State and another showdown with Utah State now carry even greater weight—not just for conference positioning, but for at-large security.

Dutcher acknowledged as much in his opening remarks, immediately pivoting to what lies ahead. The focus, he said, is regrouping and preparing for a tough trip to Fort Collins. If the Aztecs can respond with a road win and stack quality victories down the stretch, the GCU loss will register as a blemish rather than a defining flaw.

There was also respect in Dutcher’s tone when discussing Grand Canyon’s rise. He pointed to the Lopes’ resources, roster construction, and coaching. “You don’t just throw talent out there and win,” he said. “You coach good talent and you find a way to win.” It was both praise and a subtle challenge to his own group.

Overall, the loss comes with perspective. From a metrics standpoint, San Diego State remains in position to hear its name called on Selection Sunday if they handle business the rest of the way out. But after Tuesday night’s setback, the cushion is thinner, the NET is watching, KenPom is recalculating, and every possession in this final stretch carries just a little more weight.