San Diego State (18–7, 12–3 MW) vs. Colorado State (16–10, 7–8 MW)
Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
Time: 3:00 PM PT
Location: Moby Arena — Fort Collins, CO
TV/Streaming: CBS Sports Network
Betting Odds & Over/Under: SDSU −3.5 Over/Under 136.5 points (lines subject to change)
After Tuesdays kick to the gut loss vs GCU the toughest stretch run needs to meet an Aztecs team that is tougher. The Aztecs will get their chance to prove that they are when they travel to face Colorado State in what is now a huge match with Championship implications.
The Aztecs are sitting near the top at 18-7 (12-3) of the league while CSU’s mid 16-10 (7-8) record, is fighting to climb the conference ladder and finish strong in its final Mountain West campaign before the move to the Pac-12 next season.
Earlier in the year, San Diego State Silenced the Rams with a 73–50 victory in San Diego, showcasing their ability to control tempo and defense — an early testament to how this rivalry has tilted back toward SDSU this season.
San Diego State has built its identity around stifling defense and physical play, traits that have kept them in most games even when the offense has sputtered. Colorado State, under first-year head coach Ali Farokhmanesh, has endured some inconsistency but his Rams have shown flashes of scoring punch, especially in stretches of conference play where it has challenged the middle of the pack.
With March drawing closer, both teams are aware that every win matters for seeding in the Mountain West Tournament and, for the Aztecs, potentially solidifying their place on the NCAA Tournament bubble. While San Diego State looks to keep up with Utah State at the top of the league, they’ll likely have to win out the remainder of their games to get back on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
The Rams see this as a chance to prove they can compete with the best and keep their postseason hopes alive.
Scoring in Bunches
One of the marquee storylines will be San Diego State’s leading scorer and focal point on offense, Reese Dixon-Waters. He’s been a steady scorer and leader whose been central to the Aztecs’ success. Dixon-Waters’ ability to attack closeouts and create his own shot will be critical, especially against a CSU defense that can be vulnerable on the perimeter.
However his consecutive double-digit scoring streak plummeted in last week’s upset loss to GCU at home. Bouncing back on the road against a pesky CSU team with really nothing to lose, is not as easy as it may appear.
Droughts in San Diego
The 2025 calendar year ended in San Diego with no water drought officially for the first time in quite some time. But despite the wet weather this week, on the Viejas court the team has been susceptible to scoring droughts. Such should never be the case with so many capable playmakers on one team.
But when it comes down to it, the Aztecs have been a score by committee team. With so many talented players, the points have been spread out for the majority of the games this year. Great in theory, but not so great if shots are not falling collectively and there isn’t one or two players able to get hot.
The need to get a bucket during scoring droughts will be key on the road where opposing teams tend to perform better and hit their own shots more confidently.
Analytically, the game — like most between these two — could be decided by turning the opposition’s water off; San Diego State’s defense has consistently held opponents to lower shooting percentages, and if the Aztecs can force Colorado State into difficult looks or turn them over a ton, the efficiency metric goes in their favor.
Who & What to Watch for
On the other side, Colorado State’s top playmaker to watch will be guard Jevin Muniz, whose floor leadership and ability to generate points in clutch situations can make a difference if the Rams are to stay within striking distance. Again, Kyle Jorgensen will also need to be covered up, as he is hitting nearly 44% from beyond the three point line.
For the Aztecs this is a tricky game for Magoon Gwath. His first return to action vs Nevada was absolutely electric. His second game back vs GCU—had less juice than a transistor radio. If the Aztecs are to take care of business it needs everyone on the team to elevate their energy and discipline. But if they want to truly build a special season from here on out, Magoon will have to assert himself into each and every game, at the level he is fully capable of.
An X-factor for SDSU? The bench needs to extend leads when starters rest. With BJ Davis leading this team at point, reports now are official that true freshman Elzie Harrington should be available for this game. It will be his first minutes back on the floor in several games.
If Harrington’s minutes are restricted, Sean Newman Jr. and Taj DeGourville’s focus and maturity need to play off of each other and show they can pick up the bench production as much as possible.
For Colorado State, the X-factor is turnovers. If the Rams can protect the ball and limit easy points off turnovers, they give themselves more possessions to stay competitive against a tough opponent. If they reform to hitting the 3-ball at home, watch out.
This Mountain West matchup will soon be a Pac-12 one. But until then, this game will seriously impact the confidence and attitude each side carries with themselves as we all get closer and closer to March Madness.
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